If an election were held now, Alberta’s United Conservative Party (UCP) would hold a slight lead in Alberta’s battleground ridings, according to a new poll conducted by Mainstreet Research..Mainstreet Research released a new poll Thursday and said 48% of decided voters would vote for Alberta Premier Danielle Smith’s UCP, with 43% choosing Rachel Notley’s NDP in the contested battlegrounds of Calgary and outer Edmonton..The survey was conducted in the key battlegrounds of Calgary and the Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area (Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville/Sherwood Park/Strathcona-Sherwood Park/Morinville-St Albert/St. Albert/Leduc-Beaumont/Spruce Grove-Stony Plain)..Alberta’s Legislature has 87 members. Currently the UCP holds 60 seats with the NDP holding 23. There are two independents and two vacancies. 44 seats are needed for a majority..Of the 26 ridings in Calgary, the NDP holds three..The NDP holds all but one of Edmonton’s 20 ridings (Edmonton-South West), while it holds only two other ridings in the province: St. Albert and Lethbridge-West.."In order for the NDP to form government they are going to have to win ridings outside of Edmonton in these key battlegrounds," Mainstreet Research said..According to the survey, the UCP and NDP are within a statistical tie of each other in Calgary, with the UCP at 45.6% and the NDP at 44.1%.."This is a large improvement for the NDP from 2019, where they lost the city 53%-34%. The graphic below shows the 2019 numbers for comparison," Mainstreet Research said..According to the poll, the UCP enjoys a more significant lead in outer Edmonton. The UCP was the choice of 51.6% of respondents compared to the NDP at 42.1%. Although that's is a gain for the NDP from 2019 where they received 34% of the vote in outer Edmonton, the UCP is unchanged at 51% of the vote. ."These results suggest while the NDP made gains in both Calgary and outer Edmonton, gains in Calgary are larger, leading to higher chance of the party winning more seats in Calgary than gaining more ground in outer Edmonton," Mainstreet Research said..The election is scheduled to be held May 29..The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted Monday, April 17 to Tuesday, April 18. Among a sample of 1,651 adults aged 18 or older, living in Alberta..The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews (Smart IVR). The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.4% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
