The election will likely be a two-party race tied neck and neck between the United Conservative Party (UCP) and Alberta NDP..Recent polls, reported that the UCP and the Alberta NDP are "deadlocked' heading into the May general election which will determine who becomes premier and who holds the reins to the province..Abacus Data reported the UCP and the NDP are tied at 36%. However, the UCP is ahead among those who have obtained a high school degree and those with a college degree. The NDP leads by 14 points among those with a university degree..Abacus Data reported 17% of its sample say they are currently members of a union.."Among this group, the NDP leads the UCP by nine points," Abacus Data said.. Voters who self-identify as a member of a racialized community. .The Alberta NDP has a big, 26-point lead according to the most recent survey among those who self-identify as a member of a racialized community..Abacus Data said 50% would vote NDP, 24% UCP, and 17% are undecided.."Among those who don’t self-identify as a member of a racialized group, the UCP leads by nine (40% to 31% with 24% undecided)," Abacus Data said..So what's motivating the vote in Alberta?.In the most recent survey by Abacus Data, it asked those who said they planned to vote UCP or NDP why they are voting for those parties.."Of note, one in three Albertans are voting for a party to stop another party from forming the government and almost half (44%) of those voting NDP or UCP are doing so to stop the other party from winning," Abacus Data said.."Of UCP voters, 41% are voting UCP because they don’t want Rachel Notley or the NDP to be in power. Another 37% said it’s because they like Danielle Smith, while 20% said it’s because they always vote UCP.".Abacus Data said for Alberta NDP voters, stopping UCP Leader Danielle Smith and the UCP from winning is a motivator for almost half. Another 32% say they are voting NDP because they like Rachel Notley while 12% say it’s because they always vote NDP..Mainstreet Research released a poll before the election call and said 48% of decided voters would vote for Smith’s UCP, with 43% choosing Rachel Notley’s NDP in the contested battlegrounds of Calgary and outer Edmonton..The survey was conducted in the key battlegrounds of Calgary and the Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area (Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville/Sherwood Park/Strathcona-Sherwood Park/Morinville-St Albert/St. Albert/Leduc-Beaumont/Spruce Grove-Stony Plain)..Alberta’s Legislature has 87 members. Currently the UCP holds 60 seats with the NDP holding 23. There are two independents and two vacancies. 44 seats are needed for a majority..Of the 26 ridings in Calgary, the NDP holds three.."These results suggest while the NDP made gains in both Calgary and outer Edmonton, gains in Calgary are larger, leading to higher chance of the party winning more seats in Calgary than gaining more ground in outer Edmonton," Mainstreet Research said..The NDP holds all but one of Edmonton’s 20 ridings (Edmonton-South West), while it holds only two other ridings in the province: St. Albert and Lethbridge-West.."In order for the NDP to form government they are going to have to win ridings outside of Edmonton in these key battlegrounds," Mainstreet Research said..According to the survey, the UCP and NDP are within a statistical tie of each other in Calgary, with the UCP at 45.6% and the NDP at 44.1%.."This is a large improvement for the NDP from 2019, where they lost the city 53%-34%. The graphic below shows the 2019 numbers for comparison," Mainstreet Research said..According to the poll, the UCP enjoys a more significant lead in outer Edmonton. The UCP was the choice of 51.6% of respondents compared to the NDP at 42.1%. Although that's is a gain for the NDP from 2019 where they received 34% of the vote in outer Edmonton, the UCP is unchanged at 51% of the vote..In January, a poll reported the UCP held a slim 3% lead over the Alberta NDP in the province-wide decided vote (48% to 45%), according to a poll done by ThinkHQ Public Affairs..“The next provincial election is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in Alberta’s history,” said ThinkHQ President Marc Henry in a press release..“As it sits today, the NDP can capture 20 seats out of Edmonton without breaking a sweat, and the UCP can say the same for most of the constituencies outside of the two biggest cities.”.The poll said the Alberta Party is well behind at 4%, and various other party alternatives are at 1%. It said 12% of Alberta voters are undecided about how they will vote in the 2023 election..The Alberta Party, once capturing vote intentions in the mid-teens, has fallen below 5%..At the moment, the poll said the UCP and NDP do not have a clear majority of seats. One of those parties will be the government following the next election, but it said neither can be certain of at least 44 seats without capturing leaning or toss-up constituencies..Calgary voters will likely decide the outcome of the next election, and the race is divided. The UCP hold a nominal lead in the Calgary Census Metropolitan Area (47% to 45%), but the NDP have the same edge in Calgary proper (47% to 45%)..The poll acknowledged there are sizeable gender and generational gaps in party support. It said women and younger voters are disproportionately voting NDP, while men and middle-aged voters are more tilted to the UCP..The poll went on to say almost two-fifths of voters approve of any of the party and leader choices in Alberta. It added the sentiment is high among undecided voters (80%) and those thinking about voting for the Alberta Party (73%).
