New poll information says the United Conservative Party (UCP) have taken the lead in Alberta Election 2023..On Monday, a new Global/Ipsos poll conducted using a dual online and phone methodology shows the UCP has a four-point lead over the NDP among decided and leaning Alberta voters."The UCP is doing best with men, older Albertans and those living outside Calgary and Edmonton," the Global/Ipsos poll stated.."The NDP is doing best with women, younger voters and Edmonton voters. The battle for seats in Calgary will be competitive with both parties sharing roughly equal support.".According to the poll, currently, 48% of decided and leaning voters say they'd be most likely to support or lean towards the UCP, compared to 44% for the NDP..Also, 8% say they would support other parties, including 4% for the Alberta Party. These results exclude the 18% of Albertans who are undecided or express no preference.."The race is very close in Calgary, with the leading parties in a statistical tie (47% NDP vs. 45% UCP). The NDP is up by 11-points in Edmonton (52% NDP vs. 41% UCP), while the UCP dominates with a 27-point lead in the rest of Alberta (59% UCP vs. 32% NDP)," Global/Ipsos said.."The UCP leads by a comfortable 13-point margin among older voters (54% UCP vs. 41% NDP among 55+ years). The NDP leads by six points among younger voters (47% NDP vs. 41% UCP among 18-34 years), while the two parties share the support of those 35-54 years (47% UCP vs. 46% NDP).".The Global/Ipsos poll stated there's also a substantial gender gap, with the UCP leading by 17 points among men (54% UCP vs. 37% NDP) and NDP leading by nine points among women (51% NDP vs. 42% UCP).."The NDP’s vote is a little more solid than the UCP’s at the start of the campaign," Global/Ipsos said..Roughly, 61% of NDP voters say they are "absolutely certain" they will vote NDP in this election.."This compares to a slim majority (52%) of UCP voters who say they are ‘absolutely certain’ about their own vote choice," Global/Ipsos said..According to the poll, Albertans are open to change. Half (50%) believe it’s time for another political party to take over and run the province.."About one-third (34%) believe the Smith UCP government has done a good job and deserves re-election, while 16% are undecided," Global/Ipsos said.."These numbers are very similar to the start of the 2019 campaign that saw the UCP defeat the incumbent NDP in a landslide (was 52% time for change and 31% deserve re-election).".Best Premier.Global/Ipsos said Alberta’s choice as best premier is even closer than the party horse race..The poll reported 35% of Albertans choose Smith and an identical 35% choose Notley.."Barry Morishita (Alberta Party) is a distant third choice (4%). One-quarter (26%) of Albertans are undecided as to which party leader would make the best premier," Global/Ipsos said..The poll was conducted between April 26 and 30. For the survey, a sample of 1,200 Alberta eligible voters was interviewed, including 800 online and 400 through CATI phone surveys (a mix of cell and landlines)..The overall results (1,200 interviews total) are accurate to within ±3.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all eligible voters been polled..To complete the CATI phone surveys, a total of 3,673 individuals were asked to participate. Call outcomes break down as 400 completes (11%), 2,775 refusals (76%), 182 not eligible (5%), 245 callbacks (7%) and 71 language barriers (2%)..Battle for Calgary.The latest ThinkHQ Public Affairs provincial survey said, "The two leading parties — the UCP and NDP — remain locked in a dead heat."."This province-wide parity between the NDP and UCP has been a feature of our provincial tracking for over six months, with several regional variances also largely locked into place," ThinkHQ Public Affairs reported Tuesday.."The NDP holds a sizable lead in Edmonton (63% to the UCP’s 28% in Edmonton proper, 57% — 33% in Edmonton CMA), while the UCP enjoys a similar edge in areas outside of the two cities.".Meanwhile, Calgary is a real battleground the survey reported.."In greater Calgary (CMA), the two parties are statistically tied (47% of the decided vote for the NDP and 46% for the UCP), but in Calgary proper with its 26 seats, the NDP currently holds a seven percentage point lead over the UCP (50% vs. 43%)," ThinkHQ Public Affairs reported.."Although the campaign has just begun, there are many voters who have already made up their minds — almost six-in-10 (59%) decided voters report they are “absolutely certain” how they'll be casting their ballots. That said, it also means almost one-half of voters are either undecided or 'open to persuasion' at this early stage.".Commenting on the results of the survey, ThinkHQ Public Affairs President Marc Henry said the pre-election interval for the past month has been a "noisy one."."We’ve seen very little movement in voter preferences at this stage. The year 2023 has the potential to be one of the most competitive elections in Alberta’s history," Henry said.."We know the NDP is going to do well in Edmonton, likely even picking up a few seats in the surrounding region. Meanwhile, the UCP is going to win, by large margins, in many areas outside of the two largest cities. What we don’t know is who has the inside track on forming government — neither of the two leading parties can comfortably say they have the edge in 44 of the 87 ridings.".Henry said the UCP has a "slightly easier path" to victory than the NDP, but it’s really going to boil down to about a dozen toss-ups and leaning ridings.."Many of which are in Calgary. Inside Calgary city limits, with its 26 seats, the NDP currently holds a 7% point lead which still might be a bit shy of what they need to form the government," Henry said..If the numbers hold, there are going to be some razor-thin victories in some of these constituencies. This campaign is definitely going to matter.".Henry said the horse race hasn’t moved much in the past few months and there are just more than one-half of voters who definitely made up their minds, but that means half are still undecided or persuadable.."This is going to be a very interesting election," Henry said.
