Twelve figures. A million barrels per day (bpd) of lost oil production and more than 50,000 jobs.That’s how much a planned federal emissions cap would cost the Canadian — mostly Alberta — economy by 2035 if it’s implemented as planned.According to a new study by S&P Global Insights commissioned by the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP), a nominal 40% reduction in oil and gas emissions would effectively wipe out a million bpd — a quarter — of Alberta’s oil production and put 50,000 people out of work between 2030-35..And that’s just the base case.In addition to $75 billion in lost oil patch spending, it would result in a $247 billion hit to the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP).If a proposed 55% reduction cap was implemented, that figure would climb to two million bpd of lost production before accounting for any forgone government tax revenues and royalties that amounted to $45 billion last year.By contrast, the conventional oil and natural gas sector could support an average of 347,000 jobs annually if it were just left alone..“The proposed emission cap framework for the oil and natural gas sector is unnecessary and should not proceed,” CAPP President & CEO Lisa Baiton.That figure climbs to 383,000 jobs by 2035 with just an 8% increase in production to six million bpd — if industry were allowed to add drilling and export infrastructure under current policy frameworks, adding $1.3 trillion in GDP.In a news release, CAPP said it believes this is a “conservative estimate” of Canada’s growth potential given the country has one of the largest undeveloped resource bases in the world.It comes as the industry continues to make strides in reducing emissions even as production continues to grow.“The proposed emission cap framework for the oil and natural gas sector is unnecessary and should not proceed,” said CAPP President & CEO Lisa Baiton.“Instead, Canada should give the policies in place time to work while collaborating with industry and provinces on pragmatic solutions to deliver emissions reductions in the short term while positioning Canada and our energy industry for long-term success.”.That’s because lower Canadian oil and natural gas production does nothing to curb global demand growth and will have no impact on global emissions, Baiton added. In other words, all pain for no economic gain.“The loss of Canadian oil and natural gas exports will be made up by other nations, who may not share Canada’s high environmental and emissions standards.”Maintaining the oil and gas sector will be critical for governments to maintain social programs and economic growth. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) is forecasting Canada’s per capita GDP will perform the worst out of all its 38 member nations for the next 40 years. Under Environment Minister Stephen Guilbeault’s proposed oil and gas cap, the industry will be required to implement reductions of 35%-38% below 2019 levels by 2030 with the aim of reducing them to zero by 2050.According to government statistics, oil and gas accounted for about a third of Canada’s entire emissions in 2020, up about 5% in absolute terms — despite almost doubling production — from 2005-2020.
Twelve figures. A million barrels per day (bpd) of lost oil production and more than 50,000 jobs.That’s how much a planned federal emissions cap would cost the Canadian — mostly Alberta — economy by 2035 if it’s implemented as planned.According to a new study by S&P Global Insights commissioned by the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP), a nominal 40% reduction in oil and gas emissions would effectively wipe out a million bpd — a quarter — of Alberta’s oil production and put 50,000 people out of work between 2030-35..And that’s just the base case.In addition to $75 billion in lost oil patch spending, it would result in a $247 billion hit to the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP).If a proposed 55% reduction cap was implemented, that figure would climb to two million bpd of lost production before accounting for any forgone government tax revenues and royalties that amounted to $45 billion last year.By contrast, the conventional oil and natural gas sector could support an average of 347,000 jobs annually if it were just left alone..“The proposed emission cap framework for the oil and natural gas sector is unnecessary and should not proceed,” CAPP President & CEO Lisa Baiton.That figure climbs to 383,000 jobs by 2035 with just an 8% increase in production to six million bpd — if industry were allowed to add drilling and export infrastructure under current policy frameworks, adding $1.3 trillion in GDP.In a news release, CAPP said it believes this is a “conservative estimate” of Canada’s growth potential given the country has one of the largest undeveloped resource bases in the world.It comes as the industry continues to make strides in reducing emissions even as production continues to grow.“The proposed emission cap framework for the oil and natural gas sector is unnecessary and should not proceed,” said CAPP President & CEO Lisa Baiton.“Instead, Canada should give the policies in place time to work while collaborating with industry and provinces on pragmatic solutions to deliver emissions reductions in the short term while positioning Canada and our energy industry for long-term success.”.That’s because lower Canadian oil and natural gas production does nothing to curb global demand growth and will have no impact on global emissions, Baiton added. In other words, all pain for no economic gain.“The loss of Canadian oil and natural gas exports will be made up by other nations, who may not share Canada’s high environmental and emissions standards.”Maintaining the oil and gas sector will be critical for governments to maintain social programs and economic growth. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) is forecasting Canada’s per capita GDP will perform the worst out of all its 38 member nations for the next 40 years. Under Environment Minister Stephen Guilbeault’s proposed oil and gas cap, the industry will be required to implement reductions of 35%-38% below 2019 levels by 2030 with the aim of reducing them to zero by 2050.According to government statistics, oil and gas accounted for about a third of Canada’s entire emissions in 2020, up about 5% in absolute terms — despite almost doubling production — from 2005-2020.
