More people in Alberta and Saskatchewan say it is time to test Western independence support.A new survey by the Angus Reid Institute shows 50% in each province favour holding a referendum on independence, even if fewer would actually vote to leave Canada. The online poll was released days after Alberta Premier Danielle Smith set out rules for a provincial vote and Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe said he would not block an independence referendum.In Alberta, 36% say they would choose “leave” today, while 34% in Saskatchewan would also “leave.” The most committed group is smaller, with 19% of Albertans and 15% of Saskatchewanians saying they would “definitely” back independence..Still, the group open to leaving Confederation appears to be growing. Smith has pressed Prime Minister Mark Carney’s minority Liberal government to scrap the oil and gas emissions cap, repeal Bill C‑69, and revive an east‑to‑west pipeline. The poll suggests those concessions could cool Prairie anger with the majority of potential “leave” voters saying they would switch to “stay” if Ottawa delivered each demand..The survey also tested flashpoints. It found threats from BC to block tide water access, or from Quebec to halt new pipelines, would push more Prairie residents toward independence. .Indigenous treaty protests would harden support, with most firm independence voters saying such demonstrations would make them even more likely to leave.Party politics matter too. More than 70% of current “leave” voters say they would reconsider if the Conservatives formed the federal government.Despite the rhetoric, most people expect unity to survive. Roughly three‑quarters in both provinces predict any independence vote would fail.The Angus Reid Institute polled 1,200 adults between April 25 and 29. A margin of error cannot be calculated for online samples, but a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of ±3 points, 19 times out of 20.
