Most Albertans believe Ottawa has treated Alberta unfairly over the past decade, according to a survey conducted by the Alberta Next panel. “Now I know full well that so many of you here today have been justifiably, like me, frustrated and angry with Ottawa. I get it. I hear you,” said Premier Danielle Smith at the UCP AGM in November. “We have been abused and taken for granted repeatedly over the past decades. But my friends, let's not throw in the towel and give up on our country. Just as the battle has turned in our favour.”Alberta Next’s survey found that most respondents agreed that Ottawa has mistreated Alberta..The panel’s survey showed that 62% of respondents from Oct. 15 through 19 felt the federal government had mistreated the province over the last 10 years. These results come as the debate over the Alberta independence movement begins to take centre stage. On Monday, Elections Alberta officially approved the Alberta Prosperity Projects’ request for a petition to hold an Alberta independence referendum. “Do you agree that the Province of Alberta should cease to be a part of Canada to become an independent state?” would be the referendum question. .Conversely, former Alberta Deputy Premier Thomas Lukaszuk obtained over 438k signatures on his policy petition, which asked, “Do you agree that Alberta should remain in Canada?” Frustration with Ottawa boiled over after 10 years of leadership under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and, valid or not, the sense of contention has carried over to Prime Minister Mark Carney since his election in April. "And my message to every Canadian is this: no matter where you live, no matter what language you speak, no matter how you voted, I will always do my best to represent everyone who calls Canada home," said Carney in his first speech as prime minister. "You know, during this short I went to Saskatchewan and Alberta a couple of times, even though you know we’re Liberals, it’s tough out there. But I went because I intend to govern for all Canadians.".In November, Carney signed an MOU with Smith over a pipeline being built from Northern Alberta to the coast of Northern British Columbia.Some have questioned the sincerity of the agreement and whether it will actually lead to anything, but most agree it is further than Trudeau ever got in building a strong relationship with Alberta.Yet, the Alberta Next survey indicated significant work ahead, and the job becomes more difficult when the primary issue is unclear.The survey showed that no single issue was driving the tension; however, the Albert Next panel’s survey found that respondents agreed with numerous statements. All issues posed to respondents received majority support among Albertans; however, the topics included a fiscal imbalance, federal immigration policy, and underrepresentation in Ottawa. .Fiscal imbalance According to the survey, 74% of Albertans agreed that “There is a fiscal imbalance, where Albertans pay more in taxes to Canada than Albertans receive back in services or support.”Attention on the fiscal imbalance between Alberta and Ottawa tends to focus on equalization payments.The federal government paid out $26.2 billion in equalization payments in 2024/25. Those payments were spread across seven provinces. Alberta did not receive any money from those payments. Despite the persistent issue of equalization payments, which has been a concern for Albertans since 1965, the Alberta Next survey found that 59% of respondents agreed that the current federal transfer and equalization system is unfair to Alberta, while 36% disagreed. However, 84% of respondents support the province advocating for greater fairness for Alberta in transfer payments and equalization payments. The Alberta Next panel’s recommendation was: “Do not hold a referendum on equalization and federal transfers; instead, Alberta should take a leading role in working with other provinces and the federal government to reform equalization and fiscal federalism.”.The federal government’s immigration policy is out of controlAlberta Next’s survey showed that 76% of respondents believe that Canada’s national immigration policy is out of control. Premier Danielle Smith has been transparent that she believes Canada’s immigration numbers have to decrease substantially. “I would like to go back to a more normal level of immigration, which is about 1% or less of the total population,” Premier Danielle Smith told the Western Standard at the UCP AGM in November. “That's what we had historically.”Results from the Canada Next survey reveal that the respondents shared Smith’s sentiment. .It found that 71% of respondents believed that the number of immigrants entering Canada in 2024 under temporary or permanent immigration streams (1.2 million) was too high and needed to be reduced significantly. Additionally, 79% of respondents would favour a referendum on the provincial government taking greater control over immigration. The Alberta Next panel concluded that the province should: “Proceed to referendum on government exercising more control over immigration.”.Alberta is underrepresented in OttawaThe Alberta Next survey found that respondents feel underrepresented in Ottawa. There are 343 seats in the Canadian parliament. Ontario holds 122 of those seats, Quebec holds 78, British Columbia has 43, and Alberta holds 37. Albertans voted for the Conservative Party of Canada in 34 of its 37 ridings, yet the party won only 142 seats nationally. Conversely, the Liberal Party of Canada, which won just two seats in Alberta, won the election with 171 seats nationwide. .Alberta Next's survey found that respondents felt underrepresented across multiple cultural and policy issues within the federal government. .Despite feeling underrepresented, respondents could not reach a consensus on what the provincial government should do to address it. The Alberta Next survey found that: • Forty-three percent of respondents were in favour of Alberta advocating that the House of Commons adhere to strict representation by population.• Forty-three percent supported Alberta proposing an amendment to protect core provincial powers from federal law, and for provincial laws to prevail in shared areas.The Alberta Next panel concluded that: “The Government of Alberta should continue to build and support institutions for trusted, responsible self-government to reduce Alberta’s dependence on Ottawa and strengthen Alberta’s respect within the federation.”.With the results of the survey in mind, it's time to revisit Smith’s pleas from the UCP AGM…“We have been abused and taken for granted repeatedly over the past decades. But my friends, let's not throw in the towel and give up on our country. Just as the battle has turned in our favour.” The Alberta Next survey has made it clear that work is needed for Albertans to overcome the scars from years of “abuse” by Ottawa.
