The UCP government’s lead over the NDP has fallen by half — or four points — as the opposition New Democrats head into their contest to replace outgoing leader Rachel Notley.According to the latest numbers from Leger, 47% would vote for Danielle Smith’s United Conservative government if an election were held today compared to 43% for the NDP. That’s down from 49% and 41%, respectively, since the last survey in April.The Alberta Party pulled up the rear at 6%, unchanged..In the cities, the UCP leads Calgary with 48% to 45% but trails badly in Edmonton with 35% compared to 53% for the NDP. In the rural areas it isn’t a contest; the UCP leads the NDP with 60% versus 29%.Although the numbers are still close to the margin of error of 3.1%, they represent a gradual downward trend for the UCP, which scored 53% of the vote in last year’s general election.It comes after the NDP reported that more than 85,000 people had bought memberships and are eligible to vote in its leadership race this month. That’s up from about 16,200 as of January 1.The winner will be announced on Saturday, June 22.It’s not surprising Calgary is at the forefront of that drive given the entry of former mayor Naheed Nenshi who is favoured to win. The other front runner, Kathleen Ganley, reported more than 3,500 memberships in her Calgary-Mountainview riding alone.According to Leger, healthcare is the number one issue among Albertans surveyed, at 35%, followed by inflation (32%) and housing affordabability (28%) — which tend to support the NDP.More than half — 57% — feel the government is doing a bad job on health care, followed by 60% who feel the same on house prices and affordability.By contrast, fully 50% approve of the government’s response to wildfires and 43% agree with its stance on energy and pipelines. Only 5% identified wildfires as a top priority, followed by 4% for energy..There's no question that was a very tough election last time around and we've got a lot of work to be able to win back support,”Premier Danielle Smith.On homelessness, just 21% gave the UCP a passing grade. The irony is that Alberta Premier Danielle Smith spoke to both the poll numbers and the surging NDP at an event in Calgary this week to open a new homeless initiative with the Salvation Army.While she acknowledged her government is facing headwinds, particularly in Calgary, she said she was hopeful that voters would recognize their efforts and the amount accomplished after just 12 months in office.“There's no question that was a very tough election last time around and we've got a lot of work to be able to win back support,” she said in response to a question from The Western Standard.Along with health care, which she admitted has been controversial, Smith identified homelessness, addiction, housing affordability and mental health where she thinks the UCP can make inroads, especially in the urban centres where the NDP is strongest.“Look, we'll just let that play out and see what happens in the next election. I'm always up for a robust policy discussion. So I'll look forward to seeing some plans and policies being put on the table so that we can debate it off. But I think we've got some good ideas when people see that we care, that we're the kind of government that's gonna identify problems and work together to solve them.”According to Leger, housing was the most important issue for Calgarians at 35%, followed by the economy and property taxes at 11% each.
