Nearly 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil production — about 10% of its entire output — could be at risk due to wildfires in Northern Alberta.And already, financial analysts are baking in the possibility of curtailments depending on the severity and length of the fire season. Fires are already with about 10 kilometres of 380,000 existing production.And it has the potential to impact the North American oil market and impact exports to the US, which presently brings in about 4 million bpd.In a note to clients, Manhattan-based investment bank Goldman Sachs noted a third of Alberta’s 177 wildfires — 59 — are considered out of control..“Rising concerns over spreading Canada wildfires have not materialized into severe production disruptions yet, with our Canada production nowcast increasing in July, in line with our expectations,” the bank said in a note.The only major producer to reduce output levels so far has been Suncor’s 200,000 bpd Firebag field but it remains online. Other producers like Calgary-based MEG Energy have begun evacuating non-essential personnel but haven’t yet been forced to shut in any volumes.Likewise, Imperial oil has evacuated some staff from its Kearl oil sands mine.Shut-ins from fires are common in summer. In 2016 more than 1 million bpd was shuttered for almost two months after the town of Fort McMurray was devastated by fire..In a report filed with regulators last year, Suncor said financial losses could top $56 million per day if was forced to shut its base mine just outside the city limits, as it did in 2016.But even with the latest outbursts, the fire season is a fraction of what it was last year. Alberta has experienced 690 fires so far in 2024 compared with 840 at this point last year. Only 183,000 hectares (452,000 acres) have gone up in smoke, barely a tenth of the total last year. And more help could be on the way. Weather forecasts are calling for cooler temperatures and heavy rains across Northern Alberta starting in the latter half of this week.
