The UCP told you so. .The cost of building a net-zero power grid by 2035 will amount to more than the entire economic output of the country, according to the most recent estimates released Wednesday..In a report by the Public Policy Forum, the think tank puts the cost of the federal government’s expedited electricity transition at $1.7 trillion, or more than the country’s expected GDP in 2023. .To put this into perspective, the country would need to grow its annual electricity investments by 2.5 times and devote more than half of Canada’s current annual infrastructure investment to electricity alone every year over the next quarter-century. .Predictably, Alberta government officials went ballistic, with Premier Danielle Smith warning of 200-500% increases in electricity prices in a tweet posted to social media.."Imagine your home or business power bill increasing by 200% — 500% or even more over the next decade. I can’t afford that. Can you? Let’s bring some logic and reason to this conversation and modernize our grid in an affordable and environmentally responsible manner," Smith tweeted..Accelerating toward net-zero by 2035 would also cause massive immediate increases to the power bills of individual consumers, said Minister of Affordability and Utilities Nathan Neudorf..“The federal government’s plan for net-zero by 2035 would require billions of dollars of investment with the costs borne by ratepayers across Canada, but most especially in Alberta. This is one more example of the federal government increasing costs on Alberta families when they can least afford it.".According to the PPF report, a big part of the problem is the “tapestry” of electrical grids across the country that use varying power sources..A 2022 study by Enbridge put the net-zero costs for Ontario at about $700 billion with about half of that going toward electrification. While the total energy sector contributes about 2% to the province’s GDP, the Enbridge researchers calculated it would take 100% of one year’s GDP to pull off a net-zero electrification plan..And Ontario already has a 93% clean grid..Meanwhile in Alberta, the system operator has put the cost of its transition at $44.1 billion to $57.1 billion to just 2041..“It is not just the scale of change that is breathtaking. It is the pace as well,” the report states..Between 2010 and 2020, the grid’s capacity grew by just 13%. For 2.2 to 3.4 times growth, generation capacity by 2050 must grow at a pace at least triplethat of previous decades, according to the Canadian Energy Regulator, and as much as six times as fast according to the Canadian Climate Institute. .“The path ahead involves adding more installed capacity in the next quarter-century than we have in the 101 years since the Adam Beck station began large-scale generation at Niagara Falls,” it concluded..The solution? A commitment to allow natural gas to play a larger role in the energy mix than envisioned by the federal government..“Although a fossil fuel, natural gas (with major assists from nuclear and renewables) has played the leading role in Canada’s single greatest emissions-reduction success story – the phaseout of coal in Ontario and Alberta,” the report said..For each unit of natural gas displacing a unit of coal, emissions fell 50%, which is also consistent with the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change..”Renewables are everyone’s favourite new energy source, and for good reason. Who wouldn’t get behind harnessing the wind and tapping the sun for non-emitting power?“ it asked..But it’s also not very realistic for those provinces without a clear path to net-zero electricity. For provinces like Saskatchewan, the place of natural gas in the energy transition is especially important..Saskatchewan, for instance, doesn’t have confidence that wind or solar can bridge that gap. In May, Premier Scott Moe condemned Ottawa’s 2035 net-zero electricity goal as “impossible and unaffordable” and asserted he was setting his own 2050 target..,.The bottom line conclusion is what politicians like Alberta’s Smith and Saskatchewan‘s Moe have been saying for months: “Electricity is not yet sufficiently clean or abundant to allow for the elimination of natural gas in 2035.”.“To move too quickly, as Europe discovered even before the invasion of Ukraine, is to put consumers and industry at risk,” PPF said. “These two realities need to be — and can be — accommodated. The unique characteristics of different provinces and the values of affordability and reliability existing alongside a clean grid make it imperative.”
