Canada’s real estate heavy weights, the Greater Vancouver Area and the Greater Toronto Area, both came out of the month of April in better shape than when they went in and it could be good news for home buyers. Both markets saw listings increase on their respective MLS, says Adil Dinani, a realtor with Royal LePage in Vancouver. “They are the most expensive markets, so it's interesting to follow what both Toronto and Vancouver are doing because they’re generally setting the tone for regions that have really expensive prices,” says Dinani. “For the first time in four years we've hit 12,000 active listings.” An increase in listings was expected, but sooner than now, says Andrew Lis, the director of economics and data analytics for Greater Vancouver Realtors. “It’s a feat to see inventory finally climb above 12,000. Many were predicting higher inventory levels would materialize quickly when the Bank of Canada began its aggressive rate hikes, but we’re only seeing a steady climb in inventory in the more recent data,” says Lis. “The surprise for many market watchers has been the continued strength of demand along with the fact few homeowners have been forced to sell in the face of the highest borrowing costs experienced in over a decade.” The trend is very similar in Toronto, says Dinani. “It’s almost a mirroring effect to find over the last several years as both these cities mature. Toronto is also seeing an uptick in listing inventory.” “Listings were up markedly in April in comparison to last year and last month,” said Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) President Jennifer Pearce. “Many homeowners are anticipating an increase in demand for ownership housing as we move through the spring. While sales are expected to pick up, many would-be home buyers are likely waiting for the Bank of Canada to actually begin cutting its policy rate before purchasing a home."Dinanai says he finds it a bit surprising and confusing at the same time. “Because you would think that when consumers are hit with this massive interest rate shock that we would have seen more inventory come on, but we talk about pent-up demand all the time,” he says. “It’s now almost pent-up supply from homeowners who are saying ‘Hey maybe interest rates aren’t going to come down, as quickly as we expected.'" “Maybe they’re tired of sitting on the seller sideline. We always talk about buyers on the sideline, but I think there are a lot of sellers on the sideline, trying to wait for optimal conditions.” Dinani and his colleagues are expecting the Bank of Canada to cut its rate. “All the major banks, along with our brokerage, are anticipating a series of rate cuts this year,” he says “Everyone is anticipating what’s going to happen in June. “The Bank of Canada has been clear it didn’t want to cut in the spring to get the housing market ahead of itself. We’re expecting a nominal rate cut in June which will get things rolling.” “The real estate economy and the broader economy don’t necessarily operate in lock step. Often times the real estate economy can move first." “We expect the rates to come down, perhaps not as much of a rate decrease this year and as quickly as we expected but we expect things to get started this year and move more aggressively into 2025.” Rates down, prices up, says Vancouver’s Lis. “Another surprising story in the April data is the fact prices continue climbing across most segments with recent increases typically in the range of one to two per cent month-over-month,” he says. The MLS Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver was $1,205,800 at April’s end, a 2.8% increase over April 2023 and a 0.8% increase from March. GVR says there were 2,831 sales in April 2024, a 3.3% increase from the 2,741 sales in April 2023. In the GTA, there were 7,114 sales through the TRREB MLS® System in April 2024, up from 6,560 in March and down 5% compared to April 2023. The GTA’s average selling price, $1,156,167, was up by 0.3% from March's $1,121,615.
