CALGARY — Alberta independence advocate Keith Wilson is challenging economic warnings about independence as a new Calgary Chamber of Commerce report estimates independence could mean tens of thousands fewer jobs in Calgary and a multibillion-dollar hole in provincial finances.The latest debate follows the release of an analysis commissioned by the Calgary Chamber and prepared by University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe examining the potential effects of independence on trade, investment, labour and government finances.Calgary Mayor Jeromy Farkas highlighted the findings Tuesday, pointing specifically to their potential implications for Calgary.“A new report puts a price tag on Alberta separation: up to 69,000 fewer Calgary jobs and a $9-billion annual hole in Alberta's finances,” Farkas wrote.“Calgary depends on trade, investment, and talent. We should be building that strength, not putting it at risk.”The Chamber report models what could happen if separation increased Alberta's cost of trading with the rest of Canada and international markets by between five and eight per cent — a range informed by the United Kingdom's experience following Brexit.Under those scenarios, the report estimates Alberta could have between 111,000 and 175,000 fewer jobs than it otherwise would..For Calgary, where the Chamber says more than 360,000 jobs depend on exports, proportional losses would translate into approximately 44,000 to 69,000 fewer jobs.Those numbers are modelled scenarios rather than predictions that 69,000 existing Calgary workers would immediately lose their jobs.At the higher end of its trade-cost scenario, the report estimates Alberta's economy could be $62 billion smaller annually.The analysis also examines what independence could mean for provincial finances.While Ottawa collected approximately $19 billion more from Alberta than it spent in the province in 2024, Tombe argues that an independent Alberta would take on expenses currently handled by Ottawa while also potentially collecting less revenue because of a smaller economy.The report estimates that could leave the province facing an annual fiscal shortfall of approximately $9 billion..Separately, Wilson has been challenging the assumptions behind economic arguments warning of major costs from independence.Wilson argues such assessments place too much weight on potential trade disruption and fail to sufficiently account for Alberta's economic leverage, including its energy resources, customers, transportation infrastructure and existing economic ties with the rest of Canada.He has also challenged comparisons between Alberta independence and Brexit, arguing Alberta's circumstances and negotiating position would be substantially different from those faced by the United Kingdom.Wilson has argued the economic debate should also consider what independence supporters view as the costs of remaining within Canada, including federal taxes collected from Alberta and federal policies affecting the province's economy.His arguments come as the Alberta Transition Council, which supports independence, has released its own economic and transition modelling.The council estimates the one-time cost of establishing the institutions required for an independent Alberta at approximately $5 billion over roughly three years. It estimates the additional permanent cost of operating functions associated with a sovereign country at approximately $3.63 billion annually..The Transition Council focuses primarily on what it estimates Alberta would need to spend to establish and operate the institutions of an independent country, while Tombe's analysis attempts to model broader economic effects that could result from changes to trade, investment, labour mobility and government finances.The Calgary Chamber has taken a position against independence and released its report alongside an open letter signed by Alberta business leaders supporting the province remaining within Canada.The Chamber says nearly one in three Alberta workers are employed in industries significantly exposed to trade and argues creating a new international border would carry economic consequences.Wilson and other independence supporters dispute the extent of those potential consequences and argue Alberta's existing economic relationships would give the province considerable leverage in negotiations following a vote to leave Canada.Both sides' figures ultimately depend on assumptions about circumstances that do not yet exist, including future trade arrangements, negotiations with Canada, investment decisions, labour movement and the division of federal responsibilities.The competing economic arguments are emerging less than three weeks before Albertans head to the polls for the province's October 19 referendum.
