Will it be the pause that refreshes?
Markets breifly rebounded from a third straight day of record losses amid reports that US president Donald Trump was considering a 90-day tariff pause on all countries except China.
The Dow Jones breifly reversed a more than 1,500 point drop reaching positive territory of about 200 points — before the White House issued a statement calling any talk of a let-up in its trade policy ‘fake news’.
The sell-off then resumed in earnest, pulling the main New York industrial index down 800 points in a matter of minutes.
The Toronto Stock Exchange followed a similar course, falling 750 points at the open, recovering about 200 points to the upside on news of a pause, and then falling 400 points underwater in the span of about 15 minutes.
Stock are now floating near a 52-week low set last April and are officially in ‘bear’ market territory, defined as cumulative losses over 20%.
Likewise, oil prices were below USD$60 before rising to $61.97 before falling back another dollar in morning trade. That’s the lowest since the hight of the COVID-19 pandemic in March of 2021.
And it’s only set to get worse.
Trump posted on his Truth Social that "if China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long term trading abuses by tomorrow, April 8th, 2025, the United States will impose ADDITIONAL Tariffs on China of 50%, effective April 9th. Additionally, all talks with China concerning their requested meetings with us will be terminated! Negotiations with other countries, which have also requested meetings, will begin taking place immediately."
It comes as the global economy continues its fall into the ‘Trumpster’ amid a one-man trade war that showed little sign of abating on Monday as global markets extended a third day of losses.
That will inevitably affect global oil demand in manufacturing economies like China, and even in the US where its producers need a sustained West Texas Intermediate price of $60 to ‘drill, baby drill’ and keep production high.
Oil prices were already pressured by oversupply and geopolitical instability even before Trump’s aggressive trade stance.
With WTI now hovering to the downside of $60 — a key psychological threshold — analysts are warning that further escalations, particularly with China, could drag prices even lower adding to global energy market stress.
Major banks on Monday began slashing forecasts: Goldman Sachs now sees WTI averaging $55 in 2026, while Citi and Morgan Stanley have lowered their near-term Brent targets to $60 and $65 respectively. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, added to the pessimism in his annual shareholder letter, warning that tariffs could “slow down growth” and further strain a U.S. economy already grappling with high interest rates, inflation, and fiscal deficits.
Yet amid the downturn, Canadian energy companies are holding their ground. Despite Monday’s market turmoil, Suncor rose 1.72%, Cenovus climbed 2.76%, and Imperial Oil gained 0.52% — a stark contrast to declines in US majors like ExxonMobil, BP and Shell. Even Canadian pipeline operators, Enbridge and TC Energy, posted only marginal losses.
The resilience is attributed in part to Canada’s relatively stable oil infrastructure, including excess pipeline capacity that has kept price differentials tight. A weaker Canadian dollar is also helping producers earn more in the US Greenback, cushioning the impact of falling global prices.
Analysts suggest that the Canadian sector’s cautious growth strategy and focus on cost discipline have positioned it well to weather the current volatility. Meanwhile, the US energy sector faces a tougher path forward — especially with WTI flirting with sub-$60 levels, which many in the industry view as the floor for profitability.
With tariffs threatening to upend trade flows and major consuming nations like China signalling potential retaliation, analysts said Canada’s energy play — particularly its upcoming LNG exports — could prove to be a well-timed pivot. As the world’s largest LNG exporter, the US now finds its dominance under threat from both geopolitical tension and eroding demand, largely as a result of shooting itself in the foot.