Truth is the first casualty of war. So too, it seems, is emissions reduction.
Trade wars are bad for business — not only because of the direct economic damage they inflict but also because of the paralyzing investment uncertainty they introduce.
That’s because Dow Inc.’s decision to delay its $8.9-billion net-zero petrochemical project in Fort Saskatchewan is more than just a corporate recalibration in turbulent times — it’s a high-profile casualty in the escalating tariff tensions under US president Donald Trump.
While the company frames the pause as a “prudent” financial move amid global economic uncertainty, the decision ripples far beyond Dow’s balance sheet, undermining Canada’s environmental ambitions and raising uncomfortable questions about the broader strategic consequences of US trade policy.
If this isn’t a direct broadside against Canada, it certainly feels like collateral damage for Alberta.
The project, appropriately dubbed ‘Path-2-Zero’ — which Thursday’s announcement is — was heralded as a world-first: a carbon-neutral ethylene and derivatives complex that would decarbonize 20% of Dow’s global ethylene output while tripling polyethylene capacity at the site.
It was to be a cornerstone of Alberta’s — and Canada’s — transition to a low-carbon industrial economy, backed by over $1.8 billion in provincial incentives and another $400 million in federal support tied to carbon capture and clean hydrogen tax credits.
Now, the UCP government finds itself in an uncomfortable position of being forced to temper its environmental goals just as it was beginning to lead in industrial decarbonization, not just in Canada but around the world.
What was meant to showcase Alberta’s global leadership in emissions-reducing technology is now stalled — a sobering reminder of how vulnerable even the most ambitious green industrial plans are to geopolitical headwinds.
But we all know the road to hell — and emissions reduction — is paved with good intent. And insolvency.
Since it was announced to much fanfare on a cold Edmonton morning in November of 2023, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has touted Dow’s project as a rock solid committment to playing ball with Ottawa’s climate agenda, and that market forces would inevitably accomplish what government couldn’t alone.
In short, having her cake and eating it too.
In this case, they’ve directly contributed to the delay of a project that was not only shovel-ready but already under construction. Administrative buildings are nearing completion, 1,200 contractors are on-site, and engineering and procurement are ongoing — all while the full-scale build is now shelved until the “market recovers.”
Translation: until the political climate in Washington stabilizes. That could be years, if not decades.
The ripple effect is significant. The project was expected to add 1.8 million tonnes of ethylene capacity and create up to 5,500 construction jobs at its peak.
Once operational, it would have supported 400 to 500 full-time positions and supplied over three million tonnes of low or zero-carbon plastics annually.
At best, the delay is part of a broader strategy by Dow to repatriate industrial investment back to the US, where political and financial incentives may be more favorable under a Trump-led administration.
The worst-case scenario? That Dow sees the signs of a coming global recession triggered by trade volatility and is pulling back to weather the storm.
Dow CEO Jim Fitterling’s comments were clear: “With the uncertainty around where tariffs are going to land… that’s driving our lower-for-longer earnings outlook.”
For Alberta — and Canada — the implications are stark. A flagship “decarbonization” project is now at risk of becoming a stranded asset.
Meanwhile, US trade policy under Trump continues to sow uncertainty that chills investment and undermines global confidence in cross-border projects.
That’s his clearly stated goal, and it’s working.
In 2023 Fitterling boasted that the facility could have just as easily been built in Pennsylvania. It will.