Forget the crystal ball.
In a striking convergence of finance, politics and fossil fuels, Goldman Sachs analysts have turned to an unconventional source to forecast the future of oil prices: Donald Trump’s social media feed.
After dissecting more than 1,000 of his posts across Twitter (“X”) and Truth Social, Goldman’s commodity team concluded that the US president has a clear oil price preference for $40 to $50 a barrel.
As Goldman succinctly put it, Trump tends to “celebrate falling prices when WTI exceeds $50, but call for higher prices when oil dips below $30 to protect domestic producers.”
That’s significantly below current US oil futures, which hover around $63 a barrel, and far below the $70-plus levels needed to sustainably support many US shale operations.
This puts Trump at odds with his own energy mantra: “Drill, baby, drill.”
In fact, that level would probably bankrupt much of the North American industry — including Canada — and permanently cripple Trump’s dream of energy ‘dominance’ which he has long touted as a pillar of his economic platform.
But the reality on the ground is more complicated. Most US shale operations simply aren’t economically viable below $60 per barrel.
In 2024, US oil production growth slowed sharply. Despite the Trump administration’s deregulatory push and friendly rhetoric, production increased by just 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) — down from 900,000 bpd the year before.
Adding to the weight behind the “lower for longer” thesis is a rare move from Saudi Aramco, the world’s most valuable oil company and a long-time bellwether for global oil dynamics. The state-controlled giant on Thursday slashed its quarterly dividend by 30% after reporting a year-on-year profit drop, signalling tightening margins and a more subdued price outlook.
Aramco’s average crude selling price fell to $76.30 per barrel in Q1 2025, down from $83 in the same period last year. CEO Amin Nasser blamed “economic uncertainty” and global trade turbulence — much of it stemming from US tariff battles — for the decline.
The message is clear: don’t count on a price rebound to $80 or beyond anytime soon.
No surprise, Trump’s high-profile visit to Riyadh was heavy on spectacle but light on specifics, and specifically oil prices.
No formal mention of oil was made in public remarks. But the visit came on the heels of OPEC+ boosting production by 411,000 bpd in a move that has helped drive prices down nearly 30% since January.
Analysts speculate that Saudi Arabia’s surprise push to open the taps wasn’t just about internal cartel politics.
It may have been a geopolitical gift to Trump — along with USD$149 billion in arms sales — lowering US gasoline prices at a time when inflation and tariffs are front and center in the American economy.
As Goldman notes, Trump’s social media commentary reveals a president who wants prices too low for producers to thrive but not so low they shut down rigs. With production costs rising and investors wary of overproduction, that middle ground is shrinking fast.
Goldman now forecasts that WTI crude will average $56 in 2025 and $52 in 2026 — right in Trump’s inferred sweet spot but uncomfortably close to the red line for US shale.
By way of comparison, $50 oil today is the equivalent of about $7.50 in 1973, before it doubled to the then-shocking rate of $11.65. Those days are long gone.
For all the talk of “drill, baby, drill,” the data is painting a more sobering picture: A US oil sector constrained by capital discipline, foreign producers like Aramco girding for tighter times and a political narrative increasingly disconnected from economic fundamentals.
If prices stay low for too long, there may be fewer US producers left to celebrate.
Goldman Sachs, which is known for being perennial price bulls, is now putting away the crystal ball and betting not just on oil, but on the algorithm of a man who’s made a career out of moving markets with a Tweet.