Will he or won’t he?
Even as he fast tracks a Line 5 tunnel replacement under the Great Lakes, US president Donald Trump’s stance on Canadian oil has swung between threats and compromise, leaving uncertainty in the cross-border energy trade.
That’s because the US Army Corps of Engineers is expected to finalize a revised list of energy projects for expedited approval under Trump’s national energy emergency declaration as soon as next week.
The list is expected to include the controversial USD$1.5 billion tunnel project that has sparked trade tensions since at least 2019. The Army Corps initially published the list in February but withdrew it amid controversy.
Line 5, a 1,000-kilometre pipeline owned by Calgary-based Enbridge, pumps 540,000 barrels per day (bpd) from Superior, Wisconsin, to Sarnia, Ontario.
The pipeline, part of Enbridge’s Mainline network — the longest crude oil pipeline system in the world — supplies refineries in the US Midwest while also delivering Western Canadian oil that is later re-imported to Ontario.
However, the segment running beneath the ecologically sensitive Straits of Mackinac has faced fierce opposition, with Michigan officials arguing that the aging infrastructure poses a catastrophic spill risk.
That’s because in 2010, Line 6B ruptured in Michigan’s Kalamazoo River, spilling more than 3.75 million litres of crude oil in what remains the largest inland oil spill in US history.
The disaster fuelled calls to shut down the segment, culminating in a legal battle between Michigan and Enbridge. In 2021, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer ordered the pipeline’s closure, citing violations of a 1953 easement agreement.
But Enbridge refused, arguing that a 1977 U.S.-Canada treaty protects cross-border energy infrastructure, which was subsequently upheld by the Canadian government.
Trump’s decision to accelerate the tunnel replacement while simultaneously threatening tariffs on Canadian energy has raised questions about his long-term energy strategy.
Arguments for fast-tracking Line 5 are rooted in energy security, as the pipeline provides a crucial supply of crude to refineries in Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, as well as heating fuel for parts of the Upper Midwest.
Yet, it comes as Trump is pressing ahead with tariffs on Canadian crude, citing a need to bolster domestic production. Such a policy clearly contradicts efforts to secure Canadian oil through the very infrastructure his administration is rushing to approve.
Trump has also vowed to push through Keystone XL, which was rejected by his predecessor, Joe Biden, on his first day in office. That in turn has prompted Canadian officials like Alberta Premier Danielle Smith to proclaim that he wants to buy more Alberta oil even as he seeks to “drill, baby drill.”
“The mixed signals are impossible to ignore,” said a senior Canadian energy executive speaking on background. “One day we hear about tariffs, the next day they’re pushing through Line 5. It’s hard to tell if this is strategy or just political whiplash.”
The prospect of a fast-tracked approval process has drawn backlash from native groups and environmental activists.
This week, six Michigan tribal nations formally withdrew as cooperating agencies in the Army Corps’ environmental review, accusing the process of being rigged in favour of Enbridge and stage protests outside the White House.