PENTICTON — The NDP held every seat on this stretch in 2024. Two of them finished inside 1,000 votes. One of those two, Juan de Fuca-Malahat, finished 141 votes apart after a judicial recount, and a CBC account at the time treated that count as the ballot that secured the government's majority.
Nominations closed at 1 p.m. Pacific on Saturday. The names below are the ones on Elections BC's final list. Civic voting across the same towns is October 17, a week before the provincial ballot on October 24.
Where the Conservative Party dominated the Abbotsford arc, the Island Spine cluster provides an inverted mirror image of regional political loyalty. The BC NDP swept every seat along this Vancouver Island corridor during the 2024 BC provincial election.
Hit the Malahat and the Island narrows to a single highway choke point. Sooke is the main hub, while East Sooke and Metchosin sit perched on the water. Highway 14 pushes west to Jordan River (the far less exciting one, geopolitically speaking) and Port Renfrew.
Climb back toward Victoria, and you're on the notorious stretch of road that routinely closes, cutting the Island off from itself.
Following the 2023 redistribution, this corridor was yanked from Cowichan Valley and placed into this riding, bringing Mill Bay, Shawnigan Lake, and Cobble Hill into the north end. The sprawling district covers 3,116 square kilometres across two regional districts.
Political commentator Mike McDonald, on a recent episode of Hotel Pacifico, dubbed this “the most enigmatic riding in BC.”
There were 37,078 registered voters here in 2024. Infrastructure remains a glaring issue. The province recently hit the brakes on the Goldstream median-barrier widening on the Malahat approach, claiming the funds would be reallocated.
According to a government release, an update to the dusty 2012 Malahat safety review won't surface until later in 2026. Meanwhile, a bus-on-shoulder project between the McKenzie Interchange and Colwood.— the neighbouring riding — plods toward a 2027 completion.
NDP incumbent Dana Lajeunesse brings deep local roots and a compelling personal history to the race. Raised in Jordan River, Lajeunesse worked as a forestry faller until 1989 when, while off shift, he stepped off a rotten balcony in the dark, plunging 70 feet into a creek bed and breaking his back. Paralyzed at age 26, he retrained in mechanical engineering technology and taught the trade for 24 years before serving as a Spoke councillor (from 2019 to 2024) and Parliamentary Secretary for Accessibility.
His accessibility portfolio hits close to home — CBC reported in May 2025 that he is often the last MLA to enter the legislative chamber because reaching it from the dining room requires navigating a maze of outdoor ramps and a courtyard rather than stairs.
Mike Hicks has been selected as the Conservative nominee in the riding.
Unlike previous challengers, he has deep local roots. A resident of the riding for 28 years, Hicks runs the Arbutus Cove Guesthouse in Sooke and previously managed resorts and fishing lodges at Hakai Pass, Sointula, Bamfield, and Port Renfrew. Crucially, he served as the Capital Regional District director for the Juan de Fuca electoral area for 13 years, taking credit on his party page for local fire halls, bridges, and Highway 14 cell towers. He has no prior provincial runs on file.
Rounding out the five-name ballot are David Evans (BC Greens), Shane Friesen (OneBC), and Jeff Brown (Christian Heritage).
Evans secured over 5,000 votes in the 2024 election, making him a serious disruptor threat to the BC NDP in a 2026 rematch.
This is the recount seat — and considered the only true toss-up riding in the Island spine cluster.
The Green candidate who siphoned 23% of the vote last time is back in the mix.
The Conservative challenger is no longer an unknown outsider, but a veteran regional director who represented the rural end of the riding for over a decade. Sitting to his right, however, are two minor candidates threatening to bleed his vote share.
Incumbent Dana Lajeunesse brings his local council roots, cabinet exposure, and the power of incumbency to defend a razor-thin 141-vote win.
However, that hold could easily be disrupted if Green candidate David Evans—back on the ballot after carving out a 23% share in 2024—takes a bigger-than-expected chunk out of the NDP's left flank.
Conservative Mike Hicks brings 13 years of regional-director name recognition that the party's 2024 candidate lacked, though minor right-wing contenders Friesen and Brown threaten to bleed votes on his right flank.
This is the most meaningful riding in the cluster, with the narrowest of calls giving the edge to a BC NDP hold.
The Cowichan River—a Canadian Heritage River—runs past Duncan and out through North Cowichan, carving a path straight through the middle of the riding. Lake Cowichan sits at the western edge, where the valley closes. Penelakut, Thetis, and Valdez islands sit offshore, accessible only by ferry—a ride off the map most voters never take.
Following recent boundary changes, CHEK's 2024 riding profile put the local population near 55,158, covering the three islands alongside Duncan, Lake Cowichan, and North Cowichan.
While the riding name has remained on the ballot since 2009, its boundaries have shifted significantly. Shawnigan Lake, Mill Bay, and Cobble Hill—still listed on some legacy riding pages—now belong to Juan de Fuca-Malahat. The Malahat drive itself is no longer in this riding either.
Incumbent NDP MLA Debra Toporowski serves as Parliamentary Secretary for Rural Health. A Cowichan Tribes member born and raised in the valley, she has been an NDP member since 2005. Her mother is indigenous and her father Chinese. Toporowski served five terms on the Cowichan Tribes council and two on the North Cowichan council, earning recognition as the first woman to hold both positions simultaneously.
In 2024, Toporowski won the seat with 11,795 votes (40.51%). Conservative John Koury took 10,946 votes (37.59%), while Green candidate Cammy Lockwood received 5,773 votes (19.83%). Independent Eden Haythornthwaite earned 341 votes, and unaffiliated candidate Jon Coleman took 263. Overall voter turnout hit 63.52% out of 45,901 registered voters, leaving Toporowski with an 849-vote margin. Neither Koury (a former North Cowichan councillor) nor Lockwood is returning for this cycle.
Under the notional 2020 boundaries, the Green vote share reached 38.9% when Furstenau held the seat. Furstenau subsequently left to run in Victoria-Beacon Hill, where she lost.
Bert Chen carries the Conservative banner.
Chen is a small-business owner raised in a rural community where his family ran a gas station. He has worked across Canada, including on infrastructure projects with indigenous communities. Records show no prior provincial runs on file.
Justin Douglas is running for the Greens. According to CHEK, Douglas is a small-business owner raised on Vancouver Island who holds a political science degree alongside degrees in common law and civil law.
James Chumsa represents the Communist Party.
Furstenau's former seat is now held by a Cowichan Tribes member who previously served two terms on municipal council, winning by 849 votes.
The Conservative candidate who nearly captured the riding held a council seat, but the current Conservative contender does not.
The primary wildcard remains how the Green vote performs without Furstenau on the ballot. At the doorstep, land title discussions will likely arise, though the land recognized in the court judgment remains in Richmond.
Factors include a tight three-point margin from the last campaign, a previously diminished Green share, and a Conservative candidate lacking the local elected experience of the 2024 contender.
While provincial polling shows the two major parties within a percentage point of each other overall, those numbers do not reflect the specific vote dynamics in this valley.
The riding currently leans toward an NDP hold, marking it as a key second card to watch.
Drive the Highway 1 approach into Langford from the McKenzie Interchange, and the city’s concrete footprint is already sprawling ahead of you. Bear Mountain looms above the commercial strip, while the highway threads the canyon of Goldstream Provincial Park. The District of Highlands makes up the rest — the rural holdout that stubbornly refuses to become Langford.
Created for 2024 mostly out of the old Langford-Juan de Fuca riding, the boundaries encompass both municipalities, punting Sooke into the Juan de Fuca-Malahat riding next door. The local population hovers near 49,110. Langford itself exploded by 31.8% between 2016 and 2021, hitting 46,584 residents — the fastest-growing municipality in Greater Victoria.
Former Premier John Horgan used to hold the predecessor seat. Ravi Parmar captured it in a June 2023 byelection with 53.39% of the vote before taking the newly named riding in 2024.
Parmar, the NDP incumbent, held the forests portfolio and served as deputy government house leader when the writ dropped. Born in 1994 and raised in Langford, he entered the legislature as its youngest member.
A former Sooke School District trustee and ministerial staffer, Parmar actively asked for the forests file, but has since been asked to resign by many following multiple a spat of mill closures and a particularly devastating fire season this summer.
In 2024, he took 11,444 votes (51.87%), comfortably beating Conservative Mike Harris (37.40%) and Green Erin Cassels (10.73%) on a 59.08% voter turnout. Harris isn't returning for round two.
Challenging Parmar for the Conservatives is Cindy Scott.
A Langford local, she has run KC Custom Designs—a trades business—for more than two decades and previously spearheaded a Bear Mountain holiday-home tour to support the Goldstream Food Bank.
Sean Flynn carries the CentreBC banner. The former Navy officer spent 13 years in uniform before moving into capital markets and Lockheed Martin Canada. He was originally the BC United candidate here until the party suspended its campaign in late August.
The six-name ballot—the largest on the spine—is rounded out by Christopher Moon (Green), Christian McCay (Christian Heritage), and independent newcomer Alex Thurlborn.
Campaign trails got messy on Friday when Parmar dragged provincial drama into the West Shore. He amplified Vancouver MLA Spencer Chandra Herbert's attack on Conservative candidate Heather Maahs over alleged comments calling the gay community pedophiles. Parmar publicly demanded Conservative interim leader Lorne Doerkson step in and punt her from the party.
Twitter users weren't having it. Instead of taking the SOGI bait, replies immediately pivoted to grilling the forests minister on exactly how many BC mills he’s allowed to close under his watch.
This is Horgan's old stomping ground, now defended by a thirty-something forests minister who's proven divisive and unpopular outside of his own riding. He’s up against a local tradeswoman, a jilted United candidate, and three unknowns.
The Conservative vote share jumped to 37.40% in 2024 from a mere 19.86% in the 2023 byelection, though boundary changes complicate the exact swing math.
Parmar boasts a 14-point margin on these boundaries, cabinet clout, and deep local roots. Scott is a serious contender with a solid resume, but unseating an entrenched incumbent on this map is a steep hill to climb.
Expect an NDP hold.
Ladysmith sits anchored on the harbour—an old shipping hub just north of the Cowichan Valley—while Yellow Point stretches along the rural coastline. The 2023 electoral map pushes up the Oceanside strip toward Parksville, folding in Nanoose Bay and wrapping around Nanaimo without taking in the city itself.
Carved out of former NDP strongholds Parksville-Qualicum and Nanaimo-North Cowichan, the riding saw 49,387 registered voters in 2024 and delivered a 69.08% turnout — the highest voter engagement across the entire six-riding Island Spine cluster.
NDP incumbent Stephanie Higginson defends the seat while serving as Parliamentary Secretary for Primary Care Access. She won in 2024 with 14,144 votes (41.49%), securing a 2,047-vote margin.
Higginson handed her opponents political ammunition in October 2025 when she took to the legislative floor to oppose Conservative MLA Steve Kooner’s private member’s bill, the Drug Use Prevention Education in Schools Act. The bill aimed to require public schools to deliver curriculum explicitly discouraging drug use. Higginson publicly slammed the wording, comparing it to ineffective 1980s "scared-straight" campaigns.
"The bill mandates a curriculum that explicitly discourages drug use and promotes stigma against drug use as a deterrent. This language is deeply concerning. We know from decades of research and experience that stigmatizing drug use does not prevent it."
Kooner seized on the comments, posting the video clip online to highlight the government's pushback against explicit anti-drug education in schools.
Higginson’s relatively modest 41.49% winning share in 2024 was heavily influenced by ousted NDP MLA Adam Walker, who ran as an independent and siphoned off 5,559 votes (16.31%). With Walker absent from the ballot, those orphaned votes represent the ultimate prize in this race.
Carrying the Conservative banner is Kris McNichol, a 30-year Parksville and Nanoose Bay local, co-owner of CPI Equipment, and long-time community sports organizer.
McNichol brings serious campaign muscle, having run federally in Courtenay—Alberni in 2025, where he pulled 28,028 votes (35.14%) against NDP veteran Gord Johns.
Charlene Smylie rounds out the ticket for the BC Greens. CentreBC previously announced Kim Lockhart as its candidate, but she failed to make Elections BC's final candidate list, narrowing the field.
This is a battle between a first-term NDP incumbent tied to the government’s healthcare and drug policy records and a Conservative challenger who already has a major federal campaign under his belt in this district.
The independent who captured one out of every six votes last time is gone, as is the prospective CentreBC candidate, leaving a direct battle for the unaligned middle.
While not a true toss-up riding like Juan de Fuca-Malahat, this one could still be in play for a flip if absolutely everything goes the Conservatives’ way. The unassigned 16% Walker vote is the wildcard of the race; where those disaffected voters land will decide the outcome.
McNichol is easily the Conservatives' most formidable new contender on the Island Spine after Mike Hicks in Juan de Fuca-Malahat.
While a 2,047-vote NDP margin in a head-to-head matchup is far more vulnerable than the 2024 multi-candidate tallies suggest, there is not yet enough evidence to call an outright flip.
Likely an NDP lean hold.
North of Meredith Road, Nanaimo shifts gears entirely when you enter Nanaimo-Lantzville.
Departure Bay is the waterfront neighbourhood, while Hammond Bay offers a larger, leafier enclave.
Lantzville remains the stubborn district that kept its own name, and Wellington forms the inland stretch. CHEK’s 2024 profile pegs the population near 56,881.
George Anderson is the NDP incumbent and the riding’s first-ever MLA. A commercial lawyer and former Nanaimo city councillor, he took on the role of parliamentary secretary for energy and climate solutions and deputy chair of the committee of the whole in June 2026. He announced publicly he would be seeking re-election only five days ago.
In 2024, he captured 15,307 votes (51.75%), comfortably outpacing Conservative Gwen O'Mahony (39.51%) and Green Lia Versaevel (8.74%) to win by a 3,620-vote margin on a 66% turnout.
O'Mahony, a rare former NDP MLA for Chilliwack-Hope who ran as a Conservative, is not returning this time around.
Kelsey Pringle carries the Conservative banner. Nanaimo News Now describes her as a local business owner who sits on the board of the Vancouver Island Economic Alliance. Living in the area for 12 years, Pringle has made healthcare her signature issue, pointing out how patients are frequently shipped down-Island by ambulance or helicopter. She has pledged to prioritize a cardiac lab and a new patient tower at Nanaimo Regional General Hospital.
Sharleen Weatherley is running for the Greens.
This is a new seat that the NDP secured by a 12-point margin, though it also carried the highest Conservative vote share on the spine outside of Juan de Fuca-Malahat. The 2024 Conservative challenger was a political import with a Chilliwack background; the 2026 Conservative is a deep-rooted local business owner running hard on hospital infrastructure. Meanwhile, the Green baseline has already slipped into single digits.
The Conservative hospital argument is legitimate and gives Pringle a strong weapon to wield, but a 3,620-vote margin combined with an incumbent who already boasts a proven local municipal footprint provides a formidable defensive wall.
At this juncture, all signs point to a solid BC NDP hold.
The ferry to Gabriola Island departs from downtown Nanaimo, and both ends of that maritime commute sit inside this riding: the terminal, the bustling harbour, and the island community sitting twenty minutes across the water.
Cedar and South Wellington form the rural southern anchor, while the Snuneymuxw First Nation's traditional territory is entirely encompassed within these lines.
CHEK’s 2024 profile puts the population near 59,172, capturing the urban core alongside the island. Business in Vancouver frames it as the more urban of the two Nanaimo seats, stretching from just south of Departure Bay down Highway 1 to the Meredith Road boundary line shared with Nanaimo-Lantzville.
Business in Vancouver also notes that, aside from a four-year blip following the 2001 BC Liberal landslide, southern Nanaimo has stayed staunchly NDP territory since Dave Barrett’s historic 1972 win.
Sheila Malcolmson carries the NDP banner as the riding’s incumbent. At legislative dissolution, she served as the Minister of Social Development and Poverty Reduction, a portfolio she held since late 2022. A Gabriola Island resident, Malcolmson boasts deep political roots: she previously served as the federal NDP MP for Nanaimo—Ladysmith from 2015 to 2019, chaired the Islands Trust Council, and won the 2019 provincial byelection in the old Nanaimo riding. Nanaimo News Now notes this campaign marks her bid for a fourth consecutive provincial victory.
In 2024, Malcolmson took 14,663 votes (52.75%), handily outpacing Conservative Dale Parker (34.65%) and Green Shirley Lambrecht (12.60%). Her 5,030-vote margin was the widest across all six Island Spine ridings on a 59.96% turnout of 46,454 registered voters. While Parker planned a rematch according to the Nanaimo Bulletin, he ultimately failed to file, leaving him off the ballot.
Mark MacDonald steps up as the Conservative challenger. A veteran media figure who has run publishing and communications firms for over two decades, MacDonald published the Business Examiner alongside his wife, owns Communication Ink, and previously served as managing editor of the Nanaimo Daily News. He also led the Greater Nanaimo Chamber of Commerce when it was named BC Chamber of the Year in 2003, and currently serves as president of the Vancouver Island Junior Hockey League.
Anna Mary McKenzie represents the Greens. CHEK describes her as a Cree journalist, policy adviser, and child and youth advocate. A member of the Opaskwayak Cree Nation with deep ties to the Snuneymuxw First Nation, this marks her maiden provincial run.
This is the safest NDP seat on the spine, defended by a senior cabinet minister whose welfare file sits squarely in the crosshairs of downtown Nanaimo's most contentious debates.
She faces a prominent local publisher and chamber figure, alongside a first-time Green candidate boasting direct community ties to the local First Nation.
With the 2024 Conservative runner-up out of the picture, the dynamics have shifted, though no notional 2020 comparative map was pulled for this redraw.
Malcolmson sits behind a towering 5,030-vote margin—the largest on the spine—backed by an incumbency that has locked down Nanaimo in various boundaries since 2019. While MacDonald is a well-known local name, he is climbing a mountain at the widest end of the spine.
This one should be a fairly straightforward BC NDP hold.