VANCOUVER — Premier David Eby is facing a political storm as sliding poll numbers collide with public anger over his family’s use of a scarce $10-a-day child care spot.
A Liaison Strategies poll conducted October 7 to 8 shows the BC Conservatives leading with 43% support, ahead of the NDP at 37% among decided and leaning voters. Eby’s personal approval sits at 34%, down from 38%, with 48% disapproving — giving him a net approval of minus 14.
An earlier Angus Reid survey conducted October 1 to 3 had the Conservatives at 48% and the NDP at 43%, capping a steady climb for the opposition and a slide for the incumbent government through the campaign.
While traditional polls track a shifting electorate, prediction markets have reacted with violent velocity. On Polymarket, shares tracking an NDP defeat have surged, with online commentators seizing on the controversy as a pivotal campaign breaking point.
“David Eby is completely crashing on Polymarket,” said social media and political commentator Truck Driver Pleb. “The $10 daycare scandal was the final nail in his coffin. The BC Conservatives now have an 80% chance of winning the election. It’s OVER.”
Prediction-market prices update in real time rather than following a fixed polling schedule, serving as a barometer of trader sentiment rather than a scientific seat count. But for a beleaguered campaign, the optics could hardly arrive at a worse time.
The firestorm ignited during a campaign stop in Delta, where a reporter asked Eby whether his family had ever benefited from the province's flagship child care program.
“Yes,” Eby replied. “My family has. Yes.”
When pressed on the optics of using a heavily subsidized spot that remains inaccessible to the vast majority of families, and one his government has failed to expand, video of the exchange went viral.
Global BC reporter Jordan Armstrong put hard numbers to the scarcity, noting that only about 10% of licensed child care spaces in BC are priced at $10-a-day. That shortfall persists despite former premier John Horgan’s 2017 promise of universal access. Child care advocate Sharon Gregson notes that BC currently has the most expensive child care in Canada under Eby’s watch.
With Eby earning an annual salary of $227,000 as premier and his wife working as a doctor, the Conservatives estimate their household income exceeds $500,000. Political strategist Cole Hogan questioned why a high-income household would occupy one of the limited spots while thousands remain stranded on waitlists.
“Think about a working single mother?” Hogan posted on X. “David Eby deserves the spot more than her?”
Margareta Dovgal, the Conservative candidate for Vancouver-Yaletown, blasted the revelation.
“While hundreds of thousands of British Columbians are struggling with the most expensive child care in the country, David Eby’s family landed a plum $10-a-day child care spot,” Dovgal said. “What families will not accept is a Premier who promised them $10-a-day child care, failed to deliver it, and then took one of the scarce spots for himself while a single mom working two jobs sits on a waitlist.”
The province halted new provider enrolment in the $10-a-day program in the February budget, though existing funded spaces continue. While advocates and former NDP ministers argue that expansion has stalled, the NDP defends its record, pointing to 60,000 created child care spaces, ongoing work on before- and after-school care, and a newly negotiated federal-provincial funding agreement facing a December 1 deadline.
On Monday afternoon, the BC NDP released a statement from Eby explaining that his family’s local child care centre was designated a $10-a-day site a couple of years ago. Eby stated that because his family did not need the discount, they chose to make a financial donation equivalent to the savings, and pledged to do the same for their youngest child attending the facility.
National Post columnist Amy Hamm challenged the claim online, demanding proof of the donations and reiterating that the family's occupancy deprived genuinely needy families of scarce spots.
As of Tuesday morning, no proof has been provided.
Online critics have dubbed the controversy the “David Eby Childcare Scandal,” amplifying attacks from Conservative child-care critic Heather Maahs, who previously slammed the program as an “abject failure” and a “boondoggle.”
As the campaign enters its final stretch, the convergence of sagging poll numbers, frozen child care expansion, and the premier's personal use of a heavily subsidized spot has intensified scrutiny on the NDP's leadership and policy record.