In its 2025 housing forecast report, the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB) said it expected housing demand in the city to stay above long-term trends, based on gains in population and employment as well as declining mortgage rates.
There was one caveat in the report that could change the board’s outlook: Trump’s tariffs.
“While housing market conditions are expected to remain relatively stable, significant economic risks could influence local activity,” wrote Ann Marie Lurie, CREB’s chief economist. “The primary risk is tariffs imposed by Canada’s largest trading partner.”
Lurie’s ‘worst-case’ scenario was a 25% tariff on Canadian goods and services entering the US, which was announced by US President Donald Trump on Friday, with the exception of Alberta oil and gas, which will be taxed at 10%.
Lurie said her worst case scenario, “could push Alberta’s economy into a recession, reducing investment, employment, and consumer confidence. This would lower housing demand and sales while supply levels are rising, driving down prices.”
With the broader 25% tariff “Economic uncertainty could dampen housing activity, “particularly in the first quarter of the year, negatively affecting investment, employment, and consumer confidence at a time when housing supply is increasing.”
With Alberta’s oil and gas exports being taxed at the lower level of 10%, Lurie says Alberta’s financial picture may not suffer as much as with a 25% tariff.
“Alberta could experience a stronger economic climate,” she says. “This scenario would likely support improved job growth, higher interprovincial migration, and stronger sales and price growth in the housing market.”