CALGARY — Home sales across Canada were virtually the same in March as in February, falling by 0.1% month over month, according to a new report from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).
“Sales activity remained at lower levels in March, as rising global economic uncertainty, along with a mid-month jump in fixed mortgage rates tied to incoming higher inflation, piled on to an already shaky economic start to the year,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s senior economist.
“2026 is still expected to see a modest amount of upward momentum in sales and a stabilization in prices as some pent-up first-time buyer demand enters the market, but the forecast for the year has had to be revised downward.”
“The timing of higher mortgage rates, along with the perception they may be temporary, could keep would-be buyers away at the most active time of year, April, May, and June, as they wait for rates to come back down.”
The number of new listings in most markets showed a slight 0.2% decline month-over-month in March, which Carthcart said could be a factor in the lower sales.
"Lower monthly sales numbers so far in 2026 could in part be due to the fact new supply is running at the lowest levels since mid-2024,” he said. “With new supply and sales both little changed in March, the national sales-to-new listings ratio remained at 47.8%.”
Markets are considered to be in balanced territory when the sales-to-new-listings ratio is between 45% and 65%.
There were 167,524 properties listed for sale on all local MLS systems at the end of March, up just 1% from last year and 10.6% below the long-term average for this time of year. Overall supply has generally been declining since May of last year.
“There were five months of inventory on a national basis at the end of March, unchanged from January and February and right in line with the long-term average for the measure,” said Cathcart. “Based on one standard deviation above and below that long-term average, a seller’s market would be below 3.6 months, and a buyer’s market would be above 6.4 months.”
Fixed mortgage rates have been on the increase in the last few months.
“While the interest rate situation has recently changed, what could be a challenge for a buyer looking for a fixed rate mortgage may also be seen as more choice and less competition for those choosing a variable rate,” said Garry Bhaura, CREA’s chair.
“Spring tends to be a busier time of year for the housing market, even if it may not be quite as busy as we were expecting not so long ago.”
The national composite MLS Home Price Index (HPI) took a small 0.4% drop on a month-over-month basis in March, not a small decline but smaller than in February and just half the decline recorded in January.
“This aligns with sale-to-list price ratios that have been tightening up in recent months as fewer listings have been coming onto the market. Price stabilization is part of CREA’s forecast for 2026 and will be an important milestone to reach for buyers eventually re-entering the market in larger numbers,” said Cathcart.
“The non-seasonally adjusted national composite HPI was down 4.7% compared to March 2025, down slightly from the 4.8% year-over-year decline registered in February.”
The non-seasonally adjusted national average home price was $673,084 in March, down 0.8% from March last year, and led by markets in BC, Alberta and Ontario.
CREA has downgraded its expectations for home sales in 2026, now forecasting an increase of 1%, to about 475,000 transactions, down from its forecast in January of 5.1% growth.
Cathcart linked the downgrade directly to economic uncertainty.
“Unfortunately, as it pertains to the forecast, we’ve had to change that and lower it because of the situation in the Middle East and the oil shock,” he said, adding buyers are also watching how the US and Israel’s war with Iran would filter through to global growth and interest rates.