CALGARY — Homes sales in Canada edged up 0.5% in July, the fourth consecutive month of increases, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association.
It signals a recovery is underway in the Canadian housing market, says Robert Hogue, assistant chief economist at RBC Economics.
“It increasingly appears that home values have already hit their cyclical bottom,” says Hogue in a report.
“The national aggregate MLS Home Price Index increased for a second time month-over-month and such back-to-back advances haven’t been seen since early 2024.”
Inventories of homes for sale across Canada have stabilized, says Hogue.
“Even in Ontario and BC where inventories had accumulated rapidly in the past three years and has helped to put a floor under prices. Supply is generally better balanced with demand,” he says, adding “while more buyers have entered the market, fewer sellers have listed properties.”
“The market’s recent winning streak is encouraging, but the reality is that it’s still generally soft. The rate of improvement is incremental.”
According to the CREA report, home sales are on track to reach 457,500 this year, but July’s sales were 12% below the 10-year average.
“It would take about two and a half years to return to the average activity level at the pace of advance in the last two months.” says Hogue. “This isn’t a fast track to recovery to say the least. but we think there’s room for the market turnaround to accelerate a bit as confidence rebuilds.”
The ‘Canadian housing market’ exists only in bank vaults and regional differences exist, says Hogue.
“There’s been further progress in Ontario with home resales rising in July in Toronto, Hamilton, Kitchener-Waterloo, London and Ottawa, and home values increasing in Toronto and Ottawa,” he says.
A slump is still apparent in BC.
“It was little changed in July with monthly sales gains in Victoria and the Fraser Valley offset by a setback in Vancouver,” says Hogue. “Prices declined, led by drops in Vancouver and the Fraser Valley.”
Markets in Alberta have stabilized, with prices below last year, except in Edmonton.
“Home resales have moderated so far this year in Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Quebec and Atlantic Canada, all previously robust markets,” says Hogue.
“Home values continue to appreciate, but at generally slower rates. This is the case for most Quebec markets including Montreal and Quebec City where annual gains are now less than half what they were at the start of 2026. Halifax’s MLS HPI dipped below a year ago in both June and July.”
Going forward, Hogue expects lower prices, improving affordability and better job prospects unlocking pent-up demand in Ontario.
“On the other hand, steady or deteriorating affordability as well as sensitivity to geopolitical events and immigration cuts are poised to restrain growth in other markets that previously thrived,” he says.