A new Nanos poll, commissioned by CTV News, shows that former Prime Minister Stephen Harper remains the most popular conservative figure among Canadians, but overall attitudes towards the Tory ability to unseat Carney remain pessimistic.
The poll asks which conservative leader would have the best chance to oust Carney if a federal election were called. Among the possible answers, Harper, Poilievre, and Ontario Premier Doug Ford poll the highest, getting 16%, 15%, and 11%, respectively.
Other prominent Tory figures like Danielle Smith, Jean Charest, Peter Mackay, Rona Ambrose, and Lisa Raitt all polled under 10%, while Jason Kenney, Erin O'Toole, Andrew Scheer, Tim Houston, Leslyn Lewis, Jamil Jivani, Mark Mulroney, and Caroline Elliot all garnered less than five percent, respectively.
However, the number that seems to be the most damning is the 33% of respondents who said that "none" of the listed contenders could beat Carney at this moment in time.
The poll is one of a number of recent polls that showcase the growing unpopularity and uncompetitiveness of the Conservative Party under Poilievre.
Another recent Nanos poll found that, when asked who Canadians would prefer as prime minister, Poilievre only scored 18% compared to Carney, who was polled at 56%.
The same poll also found that the Liberal's lead over the CPC continues to grow, with Poilievre's party polling at 28% compared to the Liberals, who have grown to 47% support across the country.
This growing gap between the Liberals and Conservatives is all the more stark when the same poll showed a somewhat resurgent NDP, under new leader Avi Lewis, polling at 13%.
Although this is still a relatively poor number for the NDP historically, a growing NDP usually means a shrinking Liberal party, but according to this poll the inverse seems to be the case.
The one positive takeaway from Poilievre's point of view is the fact that there seems to be no other active figure in conservative circles that the public sees as a better leader of the Conservative Party than Poilievre himself.
However there remains more worrying news for the CPC as fundraising numbers have declined in the first half of the year, an area which the party usually excels
According to data published by Elections Canada the Conservatives raised $5 million in April, May, and June, compared to the Liberals who raised $4.36 million.
Compared to 2025 where the Conservatives fundraising nearly doubled Liberal numbers, 2026 will seemingly be a year of much more financial restraint for the CPC.
The next major test for Poilievre will be the upcoming August by-elections that will take place at the end of the month.
Three by-elections are set to take place on August 31 in Vancouver, Toronto, and Chicoutimi, and the performance of Conservative candidates, especially in the Chicoutimi riding, will be essential if Poilievre wants to remain leader.
The two urban ridings of North Vancouver-Capilano and Beaches-East York are not expected to be fantastic showings for the Conservatives, but the former CPC-held riding of Chicoutimi-Le Fjord will be a test to see if the party is still competitive in Quebec.
In the 2025 federal election, the Conservatives won the tightly contested riding by just less than three percent, getting 34.14% of the vote compared to 31.19% for the Liberals and 31.12% for the Bloc Québécois.
Polling aggregator 338 Canada currently has the riding as a three-way tossup between the Tories, the Liberals, and the Bloc.
Despite this, of the three parties, the CPC is the least likely to win. 338 currently has the Bloc leading with a 53% chance to win the Northern Quebec riding, followed by the Liberals at 30% and then the Tories at 17%.
If the Tories were able to win this hotly contested riding, it would mark a massive boost for Poilievre and his team, but a loss would be yet another point for detractors to point to in a growing move to oust Poilievre from his role as leader.