Federal emissions plan could cost Albertans $3,300 annually, says a new report.
The report, commissioned by the Alberta government, outlines the potential economic consequences of the federal Emissions Reduction Plan, which includes policies such as the carbon tax, emissions cap, and electricity regulations.
The findings suggest that if these measures remain in place, Alberta’s GDP could shrink by 11%, employment could decline by 4%, and government revenues could fall by 9.3%. Despite these economic costs, the report indicates that Canada is still unlikely to meet its emissions targets.
“These findings should send a message to whoever ends up being the next federal government,” said Rebecca Schulz, Alberta’s Minister of Environment and Protected Areas.
“Our province remains firmly committed to protecting the environment and creating a future for our children, but that can’t be achieved by trampling on Canadians’ livelihoods. Ottawa has offered nothing but penalties and vague rhetoric.”
According to the report, Alberta will be disproportionately affected by federal policies, with a projected deep recession in 2030 followed by slower economic growth. Key findings indicate that by 2050:
GDP will be 11% lower.
Employment will be 4.1% lower.
Government revenues will decline by 9.3%.
Real, price-adjusted incomes will drop by $3,300 per person, a 7.3% decrease.
The national economy is also expected to suffer, with Canada’s real GDP estimated to decline by 3.8% in 2050. Additionally, oil and gas production in Canada is projected to be 37% lower, primarily due to the proposed federal oil and gas production cap.
These findings align with a recent report from the independent Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO), which highlighted the economic risks of the federal oil and gas emissions cap.
The PBO estimates that the cap could reduce oil and gas production by nearly 5%, decreasing nominal GDP by $20.5 billion in 2032 and leading to 40,300 fewer jobs across Canada.
The Alberta government is urging the next federal administration to abandon the carbon tax, emissions cap, and other restrictive policies. Instead, they are advocating for a collaborative approach that reduces emissions without compromising economic growth or the financial well-being of Canadians.