Calgary among three cities to take biggest tariff hit

The Canadian Chamber of Commerce has warned Calgary, Windsor, ON, and Saint John, NB, will take the heaviest initial hits in a trade war with the United States.

Analysts calculated the share of municipal GDP tied to US exports in the 41 largest cities nationwide, per Blacklock’s Reporter.

“US President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs will have significant consequences for the global economy but for some of Canada’s cities the threat is far more local and personal,” said a Chamber report released Tuesday.

“Certain key themes and impacts emerge.”

“Trump’s tariffs would cause significant economic problems for Canadians and Americans, potentially even causing a recession.”

“We subsequently looked below the national numbers to analyze the potential tariff impacts for Canadian provinces.”

“The work revealed particular vulnerabilities in Alberta, Ontario and New Brunswick. This is because these provinces are highly trade intensive and the vast majority of their exports go to the US market.”

Calgary was vulnerable as “a major hub that exports crude oil and natural gas to the US Midwest particularly Illinois.” A total of 97% of Calgary exports go to US buyers.

“Windsor’s economy depends heavily on auto production and is home to major assembly plants for Ford and Stellantis,” wrote analysts. About 96% of exports go to the United States.

Saint John is home to the country’s largest oil refinery. The Chamber estimated 96% of Saint John exports went to the United States.

“Our modeling estimates the tariffs will impose the steepest hit for the value of Canada’s energy exports which explains why the highest vulnerabilities are for Saint John and Calgary,” said the report.

Cities ranked by vulnerability to US tariffs from most to least were:

1. Saint John

2. Calgary

3. Windsor

4. Kitchener-Waterloo

5. Brantford

6. Guelph

7. Saguenay

8. Hamilton

9. Trois-Rivières

10. Lethbridge

11. Belleville-Quinte West

12. Drummondville

13. Thunder Bay

14. Oshawa

15. Abbotsford-Mission

16. St. Catharines-Niagara

17. Peterborough

18. Fredericton

19. Barrie

20. Chilliwack

21. Red Deer

22. Sherbrooke

23. Montréal

24. Edmonton

25. Kingston

26. Québec City

27. Toronto

28. Kelowna

29. Ottawa

30. Moncton

31. London

32. Vancouver

33. St. John’s

34. Saskatoon

35. Halifax

36. Victoria

37. Regina

38. Winnipeg

39. Nanaimo

40. Kamloops

41. Sudbury

“Cities higher up are more export intensive, i.e. they export more goods to the United States as a share of their local economies,” wrote analysts.

“The index simply sums a location’s ‘excess US trade intensity’ and its ‘excess US export dependence.’”