Federal polling projects a historical drop in support for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals, with one model suggesting the party could plummet to a mere 10 seats.
Polling Canada data puts Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives at 45% of the vote, the Liberals at 20%, Jagmeet Singh’s NDP at 18%, Yves-François Blanchet’s Bloc Québécois at 8% and Elizabeth May’s Green party and Maxime Bernier’s PPC each at 4%.
The Bloc has 39% of the vote in Quebec.
Data from Abacus published on December 17 shows Trudeau’s net favourability has dropped to -43, with only 19% wanting him to stay on as prime minister.
The Conservatives meanwhile are up to 25 points — 29 points among those “most certain to vote,” according to Abacus.
The survey was launched Monday evening upon the resignation of Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland and completed Tuesday morning “to gauge instant public reaction.” A total of 1,186 were polled nationally.
This week's data is the largest Conservative lead in Abacus’ tracking history, and “the lowest Liberal vote share since 2015.”
Modelling done by election modeller Charestiste, based on the Abacus data of those most certain to vote, suggests the Conservatives will win 252 seats, a supermajority, while the Liberals fall to fourth place with only 10 seats.
The modelling puts the Bloc at 60 seats, the NDP at 20 and the Greens at one seat.