A confidential memo to cabinet last June 18 acknowledged that the federal government could not meet its housing target despite repeated public assurances.
Blacklock's Reporter says the internal document was dated two months after officials claimed their housing strategy was "unlocking the door to the middle class for millions."
"Under current rates of production, Canada’s construction industry is not projected to meet the housing supply needed to address demand and restore affordability," stated the Briefing Note To The Minister Of Housing.
"The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation estimates an additional 3.5 million housing units need to be built by 2030, beyond the 2.3 million already projected to be built."
"To meet estimated housing targets, Canada’s average construction rate would need to increase from 220,000 new homes built annually over the last five years to 700,000 housing starts per year, an increase of 220%," the document warned.
The 21-page memo, obtained through Access To Information, detailed worsening housing market conditions.
"Despite strong demand, output in residential construction has stagnated with fewer homes built per worker today than two decades ago," it stated.
The memo was drafted months after cabinet pledged to address the housing crisis.
"Our renewed focus is unlocking the door to the middle class for millions of younger Canadians," then-Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said on April 12 before presenting her final budget.
"In everything we do, we dedicate ourselves to making sure a better life is within reach for our younger generation because that is what you deserve. That is what you have earned."
The memo acknowledged that homeownership had become out of reach for many first-time buyers.
"Since the COVID-19 pandemic began in 2020, the average price of a home in Canada has risen by nearly 30%, increasing from an average of $540,000 in February 2020 to over $700,000 in April 2024," it said.
"This increase was uneven among Canada’s various regions."
Rising construction costs and record population growth were identified as key factors driving up housing prices.
"The cost of building a residential home has increased by 58%, while an unprecedented period of population growth has led to demand continuing to outpace supply," the memo stated.
"The negative impacts of this shortage can be felt across the country. Canadian households currently allocate more than 55% of their income to housing costs, marking the highest level in 41 years. The rental housing vacancy rate has hit a historic low of 1.5%, making it increasingly challenging to find affordable rental housing."
The memo was sent to then-Housing Minister Sean Fraser just one month after he publicly committed to addressing the crisis.
"I am going to be the person who actually goes and does it," Fraser testified before the Commons human resources committee on May 9.
However, Fraser later announced he would not seek re-election. He was removed from cabinet on December 20.
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