A decades-old government report predicted that climate change could reshape Prince Edward Island into a fragmented archipelago, with rising sea levels threatening infrastructure and industries across Atlantic Canada.
Blacklock's Reporter says the 1987 report, released this week under a federal digitization initiative, also warned of reduced hydroelectric power generation in the Great Lakes region due to falling water levels.
"A problem that could significantly change the face of the Atlantic provinces is increased sea level," stated the Department of Environment’s Water Planning and Management Branch.
The report projected that while a five- to seven-metre rise in sea levels was unlikely in the next 100 years, it remained a possibility over the next 200 to 500 years, potentially breaking P.E.I. into four separate land masses.
Large infrastructure projects, such as the proposed Prince Edward Island-New Brunswick fixed link and the Fundy tidal power project, could face submersion, the report titled Climate Change And Its Impact On The Water Resources Of The Atlantic Provinces warned.
Researchers also noted that many key structures in Charlottetown and Saint John would be vulnerable.
Not all changes were predicted to be negative. A warming climate could bring mixed outcomes, including benefits for ferry services, oil and gas exploration, and tourism, thanks to reduced sea ice and extended seasons for parks and campgrounds.
However, the report also predicted damage to coastal infrastructure and disruptions to marine traffic.
The Great Lakes region would also feel the effects, forecasters noted. While electricity demand would drop due to milder winters, lower lake levels could reduce hydroelectric output and restrict shipping despite a longer ice-free season.
Agriculture could experience uneven results, with some crop yields improving while others declined due to heat and moisture stress.
Tourism was expected to shift as ski resorts suffered but campgrounds and parks saw extended use. Other sectors, such as municipal water use, forestry, and health, were expected to see minimal effects.
The report acknowledged the difficulty in quantifying the full economic impact of climate change, noting that technological advancements and other external factors would likely alter future outcomes. However, it stated that while the magnitude of the impact remained uncertain, the overall direction — whether positive or negative — was easier to predict.