If nothing else, President Trump taught Canadian Conservatives there is no such thing as a forgone conclusion.
Only a few short months ago, the Liberals appeared to be in an impossible spot as they languished at the bottom of the polls. Even with the replacement of Trudeau, nobody thought the party could recover by the next election.
Then Trump was inaugurated and everything changed. Riding on the tumultuous actions of Trump, the Liberals haven’t just recovered their support numbers, but they have taken a solid lead in the polls.
Trump provided the only gift that could save the Liberals. He gave them an external threat to the nation. When a nation goes to war whether it's kinetic or economic, the first instinct of people is to rally around the existing leadership. Internal differences are set aside while the more immediate threat is dealt with.
The Liberals have jumped on this opportunity masterfully, as Carney strategically switches between being an acting prime minister, and a political candidate through the campaign. Meanwhile, Poilievre’s Conservatives have been in a tailspin while they struggle to find political oxygen.
In the last couple of weeks, the Trump factor weakened a little. Trump backed off on some of his tariff threats and has stopped with the taunting 51st State jabs. It has allowed other issues to hit the headlines and for the first time since the campaign began, the Conservatives have seen some upward movement in the polls. When Trump isn’t dominating every broadcast, Canadians pay attention to domestic issues and it benefits the Conservatives.
When the news cycle returns to local issues, Canadians are reminded why four out of five of them wanted to turf the Liberal government not so long ago.
The cost of living is still challenging.
Housing is hard to find and priced out of reach for many Canadians.
Immigration levels are still out of control.
Crime levels still make Canadians feel unsafe on the streets
The opioid addiction crisis is still killing thousands.
Carney’s Liberals desperately want Canadians to forget about all that and as long as Trump keeps poking the hornet’s nest, it works.
Foreign interference fell by the wayside. The Liberal efforts to drag out all investigations over years appear to have paid off thanks to the limited attention span of Canadians. While evidence of the Communist Party of China’s support of Carney and some Liberal candidate issues erupted, it appears not to have impacted voting intentions.
Canadians aren’t paying attention to the issue. At least, they aren’t for now. They may remember these things if they could go a week without being distracted by Trump’s actions.
The Liberal lead isn’t a solid one. When the polls swing wildly in one direction, they can swing the other way just as quickly. The electorate is volatile and their support remains fluid.
The Liberals don’t feel terribly secure with their lead and it shows with their recent actions. Having staffers try to disrupt and create a scandal at a Conservative event looked pathetic and weak yet that’s exactly what the Liberals tried. The abortion card has been played as well. The Liberals traditionally save that issue for the final week of a campaign.
The Liberals aren’t acting like a party confident it will win.
If Canadians can take some time to think about the issues and records of the parties, they will drift back to the Conservatives. Polls have consistently indicated most Canadians want to vote for change in this election. Due to the bizarre Trump factor in the campaign, Canadians still support the Liberals despite their wish for a new government.
The Liberals can’t campaign on their record nor do they want to focus much on current domestic issues. The trade war and Trump are their biggest campaign assets and they want to keep the focus there.
If polls continue to show softening support for the Liberals, rest assured they won’t wait any longer for Trump to stir the pot. They will pull a stunt to try and strategically provoke him. It's usually not tough to get a reaction from Trump.
How Trump acts in the next couple of weeks whether provoked or not will likely determine Canada's election outcome.
It's a weird place where the president of the United States holds the fate of the Canadian election in his hands, yet here we are.
Let’s hope Trump can do something counterintuitive to his own nature and leave Canada alone for a couple weeks. Let Canadians take a break from looking south of the border, so they can look around themselves and make an informed vote in the election.