In every election the phrase, “the only poll that counts is on election day” gets used a lot. It is the mantra of polling sceptics, and a favorite of political underdogs used to delude themselves about their chances of success. But in this election, it should strike fear into the heart of Jagmeet Singh and the NDP.
Based on recent polling averages compiled by Polling Canada, the NDP are predicted to win just four of the seats they’re contesting. That would be a decrease of twenty-one seats from their 2021 election results. It would also mean that without having twelve members elected to parliament, they would lose official party status.
So what does this mean for the federal NDP and it’s leader? Is this an extinction level event, or just another bump in what can only be described as a tumultuous history with voters when the writ drops?
If we look at the NDP’s federal election record it’s probably a safe bet to say that Canada’s 45th general election will not be the party’s ultimate undoing. But there is also no doubt that it may foreshadow a long struggle to regain relevance with the electorate.
History shows us that the NDP’s success and seat count often fluctuate much more dramatically compared the Liberals and Conservatives. More so than their counterparts, they are very vulnerable to changes in our domestic political environment and the mood of voters.
For example, in 1988 under Ed Broadbent voters elected forty-three NDP members of parliament. Five years later in 1993 the party was decimated under Audrey McLaughlin, retaining only nine seats and losing official party status.
That rout was attributed partly to unpopular provincial NDP governments in Ontario (Bob Rae) and British Columbia (Mike Harcourt) as well as the rise of the Reform Party under Preston Manning. A more established party with a wider base of support, like the Liberals or Conservatives, might have fared better in similar circumstances.
But over the course of nearly two decades, the party rebuilt itself to the point where it won 103 seats under Jack Layton in 2011 and became Canada’s Official Opposition. A first for the party its 64-years of existence.
But that highwater mark wasn’t to last, and with the tragic and untimely passing of Jack Layton, the party has continually slid backwards in both seat count and relevance ever since.
Which I think says a lot about the importance and the influence a party leader can have on the electoral outcomes of a party. It was highlighted early this year in the aftermath of Justin Trudeau’s resignation and the 'appointment' of Mark Carney.
At the end of 2024 the Trudeau Liberals went from polling in third, and fourth place, to leading in the polls in less than a month simply by replacing their leader.
Which is crazy when you think about it. In essence, the Liberals effectively erased 10 years of mismanagement and scandal from the minds of a majority of voters by replacing one person and doing little else.
Surely someone inside the NDP party apparatus will have observed this miraculous feat and is currently planning the ouster of Jagmeet Singh?
Although they may never get the opportunity to do so.
As it stands, it is unclear whether or not Jagmeet Singh will even win his own seat this election. The polling aggregate website 338 Canada currently has Singh’s riding of Burnaby Central as “ LPC Likely” with the NDP a distant third to the Conservatives in the projected outcome.
Jagmeet Singh has attempted to downplay those projections in the media, but his efforts to deflect from his electoral peril are a far cry from the blustery confidence he displayed at the end of 2022 when he proclaimed to the House of Commons, “When I’m prime minister, I will keep my promises.”
But in the off chance he does win, and the seat projections are correct, he is still facing a bleak future in Canadian politics. Likely he will either have to fall on his sword willingly and resign as leader or be pushed onto it ignominiously by the survivors left after the ballots are tallied.
Either way there is likely to be little in the way of sympathy for him.
That's because unlike the rout of 1993, Canada’s provincial NDP have seen a relative resurgence in popularity, with both British Columbia and Manitoba recently electing NDP governments. Even the 2024 fall election in Saskatchewan looked like a near thing for Carla Beck and the Sask NDP too. That Singh was unable to capitalize on those wins and on the popularity of his provincial counterparts is pretty damning.
Singh is also to blame for pushing the Liberal party to the left of the political spectrum and into the space traditionally occupied by the NDP. It was his entry into the Confidence and Supply Agreement (CASA) with the Liberal minority government which blurred the line between his own party and that of his progressive rivals.
He gave the Liberals his party’s strongest policy planks, got no recognition or concessions in return, and then lost his voters to them. The latter, when faced with a possible Conservative government, jumped ship to a party that was virtually indistinguishable from the one they would normally support anyway. Who can blame them?
But the most incriminating indictment as leader was the fact that Singh failed to force an election back when he and his party could have reclaimed the role of Official Opposition. That is the unforgivable sin as a politician.
So while the maxim that the only poll that count is the one on election day is true, the NDP needn’t wait for the results to come in. The writing is on the wall; they need a new leader to redefine and rebuild their party, and whoever that is going to have their work cut out for them after the mess Jagmeet Singh has made.