ANALYSIS: Carney throws Eby a political lifeline as BC NDP approval rating hits new lows

VANCOUVER — In a single day in Vancouver, Premier David Eby secured what looks like a political lifeline on multiple fronts dogging his BC NDP government.The Canada-British Columbia Cooperative Prosperity Agreement, announced Thursday by Prime Minister Mark Carney and Premier David during a joint press conference in Vancouver, locks in the North Coast oil tanker ban, unlocks billions in federal infrastructure money, accelerates several major LNG and mining projects, and creates a framework for compensation if Ottawa pushes through an Alberta oil pipeline. For an NDP government polling at historic lows, the timing and substance of the deal provide tangible deliverables and messaging wins at a perilous moment for Eby's BC NDP government..Latest available polling paints a grim picture for the NDP. An Angus Reid Institute survey released in mid-June showed Eby’s personal approval rating at just 31% — a personal low and among the weakest of any premier in Canada. NDP support has been tied or trailing the BC Conservatives in recent surveys from Research Co. and Leger, with the opposition holding narrow leads in some June polling. Only about one in five British Columbians believe the province is on the right track under the current government. Affordability, health care, housing, and controversies over DRIPA implementation and property rights have weighed heavily on public confidence after nearly nine years of NDP governance..The most visible near-term deliverable is up to $3 billion in federal support for the George Massey Tunnel replacement project. Congestion on the Fraser River crossing has been a long-standing Lower Mainland frustration. Replacing the aging tunnel with a new eight-lane structure directly addresses commute times and goods movement — issues that resonate with suburban voters who have soured on the NDP..The NDP’s handling of the project has drawn widespread criticism in recent months.After cancelling the previous Liberal government’s bridge plan in 2017 and committing to an immersed tube tunnel, the province terminated its contract with the selected European-led consortium in mid-June 2026 after failing to agree on final construction terms.Major construction has now slipped to 2027, more than $450 million has already been spent on early works, and local officials have warned the true cost could reach $11 billion — far above the long-standing $4.15 billion official estimate.Opposition MLAs and commentators have openly labelled the saga one of the biggest transportation boondoggles in recent BC history, with former BC Conservative leadership candidate Caroline Elliott calling it "crazy levels of incompetence.".The federal commitment of up to $3 billion toward the project, announced just over two weeks later, gives Eby a ready-made pivot. It allows the government to move from defending another delay and cost escalation to highlighting secured federal investment in a critical Lower Mainland crossing. For a premier whose approval rating sits at 31% and whose party is tied or trailing in recent polling, turning a troubled signature infrastructure file into a story of federal partnership delivers tangible political oxygen.The reaffirmation of the North Coast oil tanker ban represents another calculated political win. The agreement explicitly confirms that the ban will be “fully maintained without modification.” This locks in a long-standing NDP environmental priority and removes the risk of a divisive internal or base revolt on the file.Coastal First Nations have welcomed the commitment, viewing it as protection for the region’s marine environment and a validation of their longstanding opposition to tanker traffic. For the NDP, which has positioned itself as a defender of coastal ecosystems and indigenous rights on this issue, the ban’s inclusion provides a clear deliverable to its environmental and northern coastal supporters..At the same time, the deal includes provisions that soften the political downside on the related pipeline question. the BC NDP is not required to support any Alberta pipeline proposal. If the federal government ultimately approves or imposes one, the province is to receive compensation for environmental risks through royalties, liability frameworks, and emergency response funding. The agreement also commits both sides to "good-faith engagement" on routing and permitting, alongside a revenue-sharing framework and supports for indigenous equity participation.This structure allows Eby to claim he protected the tanker ban — a signature policy — while avoiding an outright confrontation with Ottawa or Alberta that could have escalated into prolonged legal or political warfare..The joint program to purchase up to 2,200 unsold condominiums in BC — valued at roughly $1.45 billion — drew immediate criticism as a developer bailout, with the province on the hook for the large majority of the cost while Ottawa contributed about 10%.During his Thursday press conference with Carney, Eby described the program not as a bailout but as akin to a “liquidation sale,” an analogy the prime minister appeared to agree with and find amusing..Eby has also emphasized that the province “doesn’t have to do it,” framing the intervention as a voluntary, market-oriented tool to help buyers who cannot afford down payments through a "rent-to-own" approach, which the Eby government has promised further details on in future months.The deal does not eliminate the NDP’s structural difficulties. Many of the projects involve multi-year timelines and implementation committees rather than immediate results. Details on pipeline compensation, exact federal contributions, and how “one project, one review” processes will function in practice remain unclear.The condo purchase program, even with Eby’s “liquidation sale” framing, still leaves the province bearing the bulk of a large financial commitment at a time when critics argue fiscal discipline is lacking.Details on how the rent-to-own component would actually work remain non-existent. Such arrangements are exceedingly rare in Canada — so much so that national statistics on them do not exist. The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation itself cancelled its own rent-to-own pilot program years ago. .Still, on multiple files that were actively generating negative momentum — a high-profile infrastructure project sliding into further delay and cost controversy, the need to demonstrate resolve on a core environmental commitment, and the defense of expensive housing interventions — the recent federal engagements supply political cover and positive framing.They buy time and messaging space for a premier whose approval has fallen to 31% and whose party is fighting for its political survival.

ANALYSIS: Carney throws Eby a political lifeline as BC NDP approval rating hits new lows

Related Stories

Eby says condo plan is not a bailout but a ‘rent-to-own' opportunity

Eby to lead B.C. trade mission to China to diversify exports away from U.S.

Premier Eby calls Kerry-Lynne Findlay ‘MAGA regional manager’ without explanation

Premier David Eby renames Site C Dam after ex-premier who opposed the project