VANCOUVER — In a remarkable political shift, the BC Conservatives have vaulted to a commanding lead over the NDP fueled by widespread dissatisfaction with Premier David Eby's 2026 budget, amping up the drama in the Conservative' leadership scramble according to a new online survey.The Innovative Research Group survey, dropped Monday paints a grim picture for Eby’s BC NDP. The poll shows Conservatives at 40% combined support (47% decided), surpassing the NDP's 34% (39% decided)—widening the margin since November 2025. According to the survey, the Eby government is the least popular provincial government in more than a decade with the February budget emerging as the most unpopular since Gordon Campbell's 2010 HST rollout.Expectations and sentiments are negative across the board: 72% expect higher taxes, 54% worse health care, 52% higher unemployment, 42% worse education, and 70% higher user fees. Negative sentiments predominate even among mixed or ambivalent respondents.In an odd case of polling paradox, Eby leads in favourability rating at 35% but also has the highest unfavourability rating at 36%.The new survey numbers arrive amid a BC Conservatives' heated leadership race, set for May 30 where party members will pick from a crowded field of nine approved candidates to replace interim leader Trevor Halford after John Rustad's resignation.Contenders include MLAs like Peter Milobar, Harman Bhangu and Bruce Banman, alongside figures such as former MP Kerry-Lynne Findlay, political commentator Caroline Elliott and Save-on-Foods personality Darrell Jones.The online survey was conducted February 6 to March 3. Results were weighted by age, gender, region, education, and self-reported federal past vote to ensure that the overall sample’s composition reflects that of the actual population according to Census data, in order to provide results that are intended to approximate a probability sample. It polled 991 BC adults, weighted to 700 by census benchmarks with budget questions weighted to 500. As this was a representational and non-probability sample survey, there was no margin of error to report.
