Carney’s former deputy wins North Vancouver-Capilano by-election

PENTICTON — Prime Minister Mark Carney’s former deputy chief of staff has won the North Vancouver-Capilano by-election, holding a Liberal North Shore seat that Jonathan Wilkinson left in June to become Canada’s ambassador to the European Union..“Congratulations, Braeden Caley. The next Member of Parliament for North Vancouver—Capilano,” Carney posted after polls closed. “I know Braeden’s values, his work ethic, and his character. I look forward to working together once again to build a stronger B.C., and Canada, for all.”The Liberal Party of Canada posted the same call minutes earlier. Elections Canada’s election-night results site was down Monday evening and a full unofficial sheet had not been published when Carney wrote. The returning officer still has to validate the count. The result, however, is not in dispute.Caley beat Conservative lawyer Stephen Curran, who was making his second run after finishing 26 points behind Wilkinson in the 2025 general election. The rest of the ballot was Stephen Tweedale for the NDP, environmental scientist Shelley Luce for the Greens, engineer Ehsan Arjmand for the People’s Party of Canada, and Independent Jeff Monds.Wilkinson first won the old North Vancouver riding in 2015, beating Conservative incumbent Andrew Saxton, and held it through four elections. He took 37,907 votes, 59.82%, last April against Curran’s 21,339, 33.68%. The New Democrats collapsed to 4.24%. The Conservatives last carried the North Shore seat in 2011, when Stephen Harper won his majority.The 2023 redistribution renamed the district North Vancouver-Capilano and pulled in eastern West Vancouver, including Park Royal, Sentinel Hill and Ambleside, while shifting Lynn Valley and Lynnmour into Burnaby North-Seymour. Eligible voters this time: 88,358. Elections Canada estimated 16,700 already voted at advance polls August 21 to 24, about 19%.Every public model treated the race as a Liberal lock. Vote-Scope put Caley’s win probability at effectively 100%. Poliwave’s August 19 riding sample of 528, the only dedicated local poll of the campaign, had Caley at 46.8% among decided voters to Curran’s 30.3%. The Liberal share was down from Wilkinson. The lead was not..Caley is a Richmond-raised Liberal lifer who listed an apartment off Lonsdale as his address for the campaign. He worked in two BC MP constituency offices, spent five years as press secretary then director of policy and communications to Vancouver mayor Gregor Robertson, ran communications for the federal party, and served as president and CEO of the Canada 2020 think tank while Carney chaired its advisory board. He directed Carney’s 2025 leadership campaign, co-directed the general-election campaign, and joined the Prime Minister’s Office in March 2025.The local Liberal association did not run an open nomination. Caley was appointed July 18. Curran, a Central Lonsdale commercial lawyer nominated March 5, spent the campaign calling that a parachute drop and putting “Vote Local” on signs that copied Elections Canada’s black-on-yellow scheme. Housing costs, bridge congestion and the tariff file dominated the all-candidates meetings.Monday was one of three federal by-elections. CTV News declared Liberal Tanveer Shahnawaz elected in Beaches-East York, the Toronto seat Nate Erskine-Smith vacated. Unofficial counts in Quebec also pointed to a Liberal gain in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, the riding Conservative Richard Martel left for the Senate. North Vancouver-Capilano was the hold Carney could not afford to fumble. It was never close enough to test that claim.A mid-August video posted by @604RAW showed teenagers on e-bikes shoving over a Liberal campaign sign in North Vancouver. .Wilkinson announced April 30 that Carney had asked him to take the Brussels post. He left the Commons June 19. The Speaker notified Elections Canada June 22. Carney dropped the writ July 26 for a Monday vote 36 days later, the statutory minimum. The seat had been Liberal since 2015. After Monday it still is, with a staffer on the office door instead of a minister.Caley’s pitch was continuity with Carney’s government. Curran’s pitch was that a decade of Liberal management left the bridges jammed and the housing market out of reach. North Shore voters kept the same party they have sent to Ottawa for 11 years. Validated numbers follow when Elections Canada’s feed is back up.

Carney’s former deputy wins North Vancouver-Capilano by-election

Related Stories

MACLEOD: Canada faces a choice — Beijing or Washington

MP Jamil Jivani hosts second 'Restore the North' event in Calgary

North Vancouver–Capilano by-election emerges as early test of federal leader support

Privy Council poll found Vancouver voters wary of Alberta oil pipeline