DEEP DIVE: A riding-by-riding analysis — the Abbotsford arc

PENTICTON — Five ridings run along the Fraser Valley from the Langley border to the foothills above Chilliwack. The Conservatives swept all of them in 2024. In 2026 the cluster enters an October 24 election with some residual Conservative Party of BC upheaval still on it.In what feels like a lifetime ago now, Kerry-Lynne Findlay resigned as party leader on September 20, two days before Premier David Eby dissolved the legislature on September 22 and cancelled the Abbotsford-Mission byelection after advance voting had begun.Interim leader Lorne Doerkson now carries the party into a snap campaign fraught with unpredictability and intrigue. Nominations closed at 1 p.m. Pacific on Saturday..Abbotsford-Mission.The ridingSet yourself down in the middle of Abbotsford-Mission and you are looking at the mighty Fraser, flowing toward Vancouver. Hwy. 11, a man-made river of sorts carrying commuters to and from work, comes off the Mission Bridge and climbs into town.Above Hatzic, Westminster Abbey sits on the bench: a concrete Benedictine church with stained glass in its dome and the valley floor spread beneath it. Clayburn Village, British Columbia's first company town, survives at the foot of Sumas Mountain as brick houses and a 1912 general store.The fields, and the people, are working ones: berry rows, dairy barns, pickup trucks on farm roads. First Ave. anchors Mission's town centre, and Mission Hospital is the building that kept coming up at the Clarke Theatre forum on September 14.The wider Abbotsford–Mission census metropolitan area is the most Sikh in Canada — 41,665 people, 21.7% of the 2021 count — though that weight sits south of the river more than in Mission itself. The riding reads as family, farm, church and gurdwara more than a typical Metro Vancouver suburb..The candidatesThe 2024 result fit that reading. Conservative Reann Gasper unseated NDP incumbent Pam Alexis with more than 55% of the vote. Gasper resigned on August 22 so Findlay could seek the seat.She then lost the general-election nomination to Darryl Kropp, named on September 26.Kropp is an executive at RedMane Technology who has lived in Abbotsford more than 25 years. The party biography says he built the lean system at Cascade Aerospace, won election to the board of First West Credit Union in 2018, and has sat on the Northview Community Church board for 17 years, 11 of them as chair. He has no previous run on record.Alexis returns as the NDP's comeback candidate. Born in Victoria, she won the mayor's chair in Mission in 2018 and resigned it after beating two-term Liberal Simon Gibson for this seat in 2020. She suffered a stroke in September 2021 and returned to work the next month. Eby made her agriculture minister on December 7, 2022. In 2024 the voters of a riding built on berry rows and dairy barns sent the sitting agriculture minister home.At the Clarke Theatre on September 14 she told the hall the last she had heard, everyone looking for a doctor had received one..When Findlay said the Conservatives would repeal the Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples Act, meanwhile, Alexis called that very disturbing, and said repeal would "play havoc on BC's economy.".CentreBC's Lakhwinder Jhaj and Libertarian Jeff Monds carry over from the cancelled byelection.OneBC fields Virender Dass, a newcomer, after leader Dallas Brodie said on August 29 the party would sit out the byelection rather than interfere with Findlay's bid.Green Stephen Fowler, who took 10.6% here in 2020 and stood in the byelection, is not on the final ballot. At that same Mission hall he told the room British Columbia had attempted a chicken-pox genocide..The summaryA large contingent of the Conservative base — who call themselves grassroots members — remains vocal about Findlay’s resignation, a move many still call an ouster. They are equally frustrated by Gasper’s absence from the ballot. Gasper resigned her seat so Findlay could run, only to lose the general-election nomination to a man with no political track record.This could, expectedly and understandably, leave a sour taste. Kropp, a lesser-known Abbotsford executive and first-time candidate, secured the party’s nomination on September 26. He faces Alexis, the former mayor, MLA, and agriculture minister the riding ousted in 2024. While Alexis is a known commodity, Kropp must convince members who wanted Gasper or Findlay to champion a new name in a snap election they never requested. Jhaj, Monds, and Dass are also on the ballot, but none represent the candidate those grassroots members expected.The true test is whether the 2024 Conservative vote will hold after this episode, and whether Kropp can galvanize the grassroots instead of watching them stay home.A predictionGasper secured more than 55% of the vote in 2024, defeating a sitting minister by 11 points. Kropp does not automatically inherit that momentum. The party brand should still be enough to carry the riding, and a right-wing vote split will not necessarily hand the seat to Alexis. However, expecting a repeat of that 11-point margin is probably unrealistic.Expect a Conservative win, but with a tighter margin than in 2024..Abbotsford-South.The ridingSet yourself down in the middle of Abbotsford South and you smell the prairie before you see the border. Sumas Prairie is drained lakebed: Holsteins, blueberry fields, barns, and the Whatcom floodplain running south. The lake was drained in the 1920s, and the water that comes back is a live political fact after the 2021 atmospheric river and the December 2025 flood.Hwy. 11 comes south from Abbotsford-Mission and runs to Huntingdon, where trucks queue for the Sumas, Washington crossing. This is the riding hugging the line. Turn north and you are in the city: historic downtown, South Fraser Way, and the Gur Sikh Temple at 33089 South Fraser Way. Built in 1911 of wood the lumber company let the mill workers carry, with a second-floor verandah, it is a National Historic Site and the oldest standing gurdwara in North America..Conservative Bruce Banman won here in 2024 with 13,053 votes (61.6%) to NDP candidate Sarah Kooner's 7,454, a 26.4-point margin and the widest in the cluster. A former Abbotsford mayor, he first won the seat in 2020 as a BC Liberal and crossed to the Conservatives on September 13, 2023, the second sitting Conservative after John Rustad, and the move that gave the party official status.Switching parties between elections is a local tradition. John van Dongen, Darryl Plecas and Banman all walked away from the BC Liberals while holding this seat. The riding has not walked the other way, however. Created in 2009, it has never elected a New Democrat. The closest call was 2020, when Banman beat Inder Johal by nine points. Van Dongen left the Liberals in 2012, sat Independent, and lost the 2013 election to Plecas. Plecas later sat Independent as Speaker and did not run again.On August 27 Banman walked away again, this time from the Conservatives. Constituents were telling him Findlay was "unelectable," he said, and an NDP win was becoming increasingly likely. He joined CentreBC in September and was named on the September 22 walk-back, two days after she resigned.The same man had offered himself for the leadership with the slogan "Conservative without apology.".The candidatesBanman is a familiar commodity in the riding — for good or bad reasons depending on the audience.In June 2013, during his tenure as mayor, city workers dumped chicken manure on a homeless encampment on Gladys Avenue across from the Salvation Army — a location known locally as the "Happy Tree."Banman apologized, claiming he had no prior knowledge, and city manager George Murray took responsibility. The incident followed Banman to the legislature anyway, with Health Minister Ravi Kahlon bringing it up in 2023..Banman now faces challengers on both flanks. Robin Roy of OneBC, making his first political run, offers disaffected conservatives a landing spot in Dallas Brodie's tent. Born in Weyburn, Saskatchewan, Roy grew up in Chilliwack and Abbotsford and has run an IT company since 1998. The NDP is fielding Leah Ballantyne, a lawyer specializing in First Nations rights, treaty law, governance, and legal reform. The party identifies Ballantyne as Mikisew Iskwew, a member of the Mathias Colomb Cree Nation, and the first lawyer from that nation. Her family resides in the riding. CentreBC is not fielding a candidate in this district..The summaryThe central question is whether a 26-point cushion can withstand a summer in which the incumbent led an exodus, joined a rival party, and returned.There may be a floor-crossing agent in the water of Abbotsford-South. Van Dongen left the Liberals in 2012, tried the Conservatives, sat Independent, and lost the seat. Plecas left the Liberals to sit Independent as Speaker, and did not run again. Banman has now done the walk twice, once into the Conservatives and once out and back.A predictionThe cushion remains the largest in the regional cluster, and opposition forces have never won the riding under this name. The local political tradition in Abbotsford-South favours, or is at least oddly forgiving to, floor-crosses. While Roy gives disgruntled voters an alternative, his presence does not make Banman the underdog on this record.The reading from here points to a Conservative hold..Abbotsford-West.The ridingAbbotsford West tells the Matsqui side of the story. The Fraser River forms its northern wall, with the Matsqui Trail tracing the dyke along the water. On a clear day, Westminster Abbey sits as a distinct white landmark perched on the ridge across the river. Inland, the terrain rises toward Mount Lehman, anchored by Highstreet Shopping Centre on Mount Lehman Road.Mike de Jong represented the area for three decades. First elected in a 1994 by-election, he became a mainstay of successive BC Liberal cabinets before stepping down in 2024.That's when Conservative Korky Neufeld captured the open seat for his party, taking 11,483 votes (58.4%) to defeat NDP candidate Graeme Hutchison’s 7,255 votes (36.9%) — a 4,228-vote margin. Independent James Davison pulled 940 votes. Neufeld brings a varied background to Victoria, having spent 15 years on the Abbotsford school board alongside work in construction management and pastoral ministry.De Jong endured a rockier path on the federal stage. After the federal Conservatives rejected his nomination bid in Abbotsford—South Langley, he launched an independent campaign in 2025. He finished third with 9,747 votes (17.4%), trailing Conservative Sukhman Gill (43.09%) and Liberal Kevin Gillies (33.89%). A politician who commanded this ground for 30 years managed just one in six votes without a party banner behind him.The candidatesNeufeld faces the NDP's Jules Côté. She was born and raised in Abbotsford, belongs to the National Farmers Union, and was a University of the Fraser Valley student when she carried the federal NDP banner in Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford in 2025, finishing third with 2,745 votes (4.6%). On that filing she listed her occupation as a student. Western Standard noted Thursday that it remained unclear whether she has a job..The NDP's official party statement calls her a "leasehold farmer." That may offer some explanation, but it still leaves open the question of whether Côté has ever been employed.CentreBC's Gurpreet Chahal, with no previous run on record, takes the flank. OneBC and the Greens have no candidates here..The summaryAbbotsford West served as Mike de Jong’s personal stronghold for three decades until his 2024 retirement. The district leans so reliably right that it has never elected a New Democrat under its modern name. Even in 2020, de Jong fended off Preet Rai by a 9% margin on a split centre-right ballot. In 2024, Conservative Korky Neufeld routed the field to capture the open seat by a 21.5% margin after BC United folded and walked away.The electorate here consistently votes for the party over the person. De Jong's federal campaign serves as an instructive case study: even at the federal level — where voters tend to be even more engaged and informed — 30 years of established personal brand recognition meant little once detached from the Conservative banner..A predictionAdding to the challenges for Neufeld's competition, the current slate of challengers bring remarkably thin resumes to a difficult fight. Côté arrives as a first-time provincial candidate whose only prior run ended in a third-place federal finish. Chahal is simply a name on a ballot without a public track record.Expect party loyalty to dictate future outcomes and keep the riding firmly in Conservative hands.Looking ahead, Abbotsford West should remain solidly Conservative..Langley-Abbotsford.The ridingLangley-Abbotsford runs along Fraser Highway, far from the downtowns of Langley and Abbotsford alike. Murrayville is the township grid. Aldergrove is the strip and the cluster's second port of entry, with Highway 13 running south to Lynden, Washington. Bradner, an old farm plateau, still puts daffodils on the spring calendar with its flower show, and the Greater Vancouver Zoo occupies 120 acres off 264th Street. The riding was assembled in 2024 from pieces of Langley, Langley East, Abbotsford West, and Abbotsford South, which explains the name.The candidatesConservative Harman Bhangu won the first contest on these lines with 14,341 votes (55.65%) to the NDP's John Aldag at 8,691 (33.73%), a margin of 5,650 and the largest raw-vote win in the cluster. Bhangu hauled aggregate before he hauled votes, coached minor football, and ran third in the 2022 Surrey South byelection before this nomination.The nomination that put him here is part of the story. In June 2024, Bob Mackin's The Breaker reported that Bhangu won a virtual meeting with 220 votes, ahead of Shelly Jan Semmler on 150 and Ryan Warawa on 42. A riding-association vice-president went to court to stop the meeting and challenge the party's selection rules.Now Shelly Jan is back, and she is not a Conservative this time. The woman Bhangu bested for the 2024 Conservative nomination, has re-emerged under Dallas Brodie's OneBC banner to contest the seat.The NDP is fielding Erin Osborne, a candidate who currently lacks an established campaign footprint or public biography. A LinkedIn account matching her name and location describe someone working primarily as a fitness instructor. She replaces John Aldag, the high-profile former federal Liberal MP who took second place in 2024 but chose not to return for a rematch.Melissa Snazell returns for the Greens after capturing 1,434 votes and 5.56% in 2024. A pharmacy technician and 12-year Aldergrove resident, she also ran federally in Abbotsford—South Langley in 2025, taking 577 votes.Alex Joehl, identified by the Libertarian Party as its leader, rounds out the ballot. A local fixture who has run in multiple municipal, provincial, and federal races since 2015, he provides a baseline protest vote, having taken 200 votes here in 2024..The summaryThe 2024 result delivered a clean Conservative majority, but 2026 introduces new variables. Aldag is gone, taking his federal resume with him. Snazell and Joehl return to their respective flanks. The race hinges on whether Bhangu’s 5,650-vote cushion can withstand a fractured right, with Jan offering a OneBC alternative to disaffected conservatives. The secondary question is whether an unknown NDP candidate like Osborne can maintain the left's vote share.A predictionBhangu coasted to a 22% margin on his first run, and he remains an incumbent who hasn't abandoned his post. While Jan serves as an annoyance on the right, the raw arithmetic of their 2024 nomination battle proves she is far from a viable threat. Coupled with a non-existent NDP ground game, Bhangu is positioned to sweep his way to a second term.This riding looks like a fairly safe Conservative hold..Chilliwack-Cultus Lake.The ridingChilliwack-Cultus Lake sits south of Highway 1, where the mountains press tight against the valley floor. Yarrow stretches across a grid of farm roads at the foot of Vedder Mountain, settled by Mennonites in the late 1920s after Sumas Lake was drained. Vedder Crossing serves as the commercial artery, while Promontory climbs the hillside in a dense cascade of new suburban roofs.Follow the road south as it becomes Columbia Valley Highway and you reach Cultus Lake — the provincial park shoreline and namesake waterpark much of the Lower Mainland treats as an annual summer day trip (if it’s not closed due to risk of electrocution). Several Stó:lō communities sit inside these same electoral lines, anchoring a deep indigenous history alongside a mix of agricultural, suburban, and resort-town voters..The candidatesÁ’a:líya Warbus, the first Stó:lō MLA elected to the legislature, captured the seat in 2024 and returns as the Conservative incumbent. She is the daughter of former lieutenant-governor Steven Point. Before entering provincial politics, her work spanned film, indigenous communications, and education. Voters across this district of farms, subdivisions, and lake cabins endorsed that resume in 2024, before spending the next two years watching her navigate a turbulent first term in Victoria. For one, there was the now infamous “lightbulb video” — a 19-second studio clip that went viral. .Responding to an off-camera assertion that “we gave you the lightbulb,” Warbus, then serving as Official Opposition house leader, replied that her ancestors had not asked for it. Former Conservative board member Paul Ratchford posted the video, accusing her of showing disdain for Western civilization. Warbus never walked the statement back. She then broke ranks with her party entirely. Much later, on August 31, citing leadership and organizational concerns under Kerry-Lynne Findlay, Warbus resigned from caucus to sit as an Independent. She subsequently aligned herself with the short-lived CentreBC group of eight. But like seven others, her exile proved temporary: on September 22, hours after the election writ dropped, she rejoined the Conservatives under interim leader Lorne Doerkson.On the other end, Kelli Paddon returns for the NDP in a direct rematch. Paddon represented the predecessor riding of Chilliwack-Kent from 2020 to 2024 before losing this redrawn seat. Since then, she has worked in strategic consulting following an earlier career in community services and youth employment. Her campaign focuses on core NDP priorities — housing, healthcare costs, and family services. Paddon is not just some placeholder candidate sent to fly the party flag because no one else was willing to do it; she is a former MLA aiming to reclaim her home turf..The summaryThe upcoming race is a direct, two-candidate rematch. Warbus, the province's first Stó:lō MLA, returns as the Conservative incumbent. However, her first term featured recent turbulence: in late August, she resigned from the Conservative caucus to sit as an Independent and briefly aligned with CentreBC before returning to the Conservative banner on September 22.Paddon, who previously represented the predecessor riding of Chilliwack-Kent from 2020 to 2024, is running a motivated campaign to reclaim the territory. She is not a placeholder candidate; she brings a solid 45% baseline from 2024 and significant legislative experience to the rematch..A predictionWith no Green, OneBC, or independent candidates on the ballot to absorb protest votes, the race hinges on whether Warbus's temporary party defection will cost her support among the right-leaning base. If enough conservative voters stay home, the seat could flip. However, given the riding's underlying fundamentals and the lack of a third-party conservative alternative, Warbus remains positioned to hold the seat, though likely by a tighter margin than her 2024 victory.

DEEP DIVE: A riding-by-riding analysis — the Abbotsford arc

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