EXCLUSIVE: First Abbotsford-Mission byelection poll offers mixed results

PENTICTON — The first poll built only around the Abbotsford-Mission byelection puts Conservative Leader Kerry-Lynne Findlay ahead of NDP rematch candidate Pam Alexis by 15 points.The Western Standard obtained the tables Tuesday from a source within the party. The package does not name a firm, but the same source confirmed the polling data was conducted internally by the party.Interviewing of 212 individuals ran August 29 and 30, the same weekend Premier David Eby set Saturday, September 26 as voting day and Alexis confirmed she would carry the NDP banner again. This means the polling data captures voter sentiment after the exodus of six Conservatives MPs last week.Among those who picked a candidate, Findlay took 49.4% and Alexis 34.0%. A Green candidate drew 5.6%, a OneBC candidate 7.4%, and another party’s candidate 3.7%. A further 16.1% of the sample said they were unsure..Findlay’s 49.4% support is actually significantly softer than the 55.38% Reann Gasper took on the two-name 2024 ballot, when Alexis finished at 44.62% and no Green or centre party appeared.Also potentially troubling is that the same respondents split the “best premier” question the other way. Among those who named a leader, Eby took 41.2% and Findlay 38.5%. OneBC Leader Dallas Brodie drew 10.4%, Green Leader Emily Lowan 6.6%, and another party’s leader 3.3%. Unsure sat at 14.2% of the sample..The Conservative Party of BC acclaimed Findlay for the byelection on August 25.Seven sitting MLAs have left her caucus since August 14. The legislature returns October 5. She needs the seat if she is going to lead from inside it. Eby told reporters Tuesday he called the writ quickly because he thinks Alexis will beat Findlay.In a question from Global News on Tuesday, Eby said Alexis would beat Findlay’s “hateful, divisive” approach..Of the 212 people, 43.8% were 65 or older and only 8.8% were 18 to 35. Men were 57.6% of the group, women 42.4%. A simple random sample of that size would carry a margin of error of about ±6.7 percentage points, 19 times in 20. Nominations for the closely watched byelection will close at 1 p.m. Saturday, September 5. Advance voting runs September 18 to 23. Elections BC has 42,692 names on the list from 2024.CentreBC named Lakhwinder Jhaj on August 30, in the middle of the field window. The tables give “another party’s candidate” 3.7% and do not print her name. OneBC has issued a statement on the byelection and has not named a Fraser Valley candidate. The Greens took 10.57% here in 2020, sat out 2024, and have not signalled a 2026 name..Alexis is the last person to have been mayor of Mission and the last NDP MLA for the riding. Findlay lives in South Surrey, which isn't terribly far from Abbotsford-Mission but does put her at something of an optical and geographic advantage.People inside and outside the Conservative Party have asked why Chapman did not give up that seat instead of another MLA. Findlay told Black Press in July that Chapman’s earlier cancer diagnosis made it “a lot for me to ask him to do that.” Randy Hawes, the first MLA for Abbotsford-Mission and the former president of Gasper’s riding association, quit the party on August 24, called the seat-asks “very wrong,” and said she lives in Surrey South and did not ask Chapman to move. He said he would work to keep her from becoming his MLA. .Rosalyn Bird, Ian Paton and Lynne Block each refused when Findlay asked for their own ridings. Bird later told the Prince George Citizen she “respectfully declined" and then later said she was screamed at. She then described to another reporter that the call lasted less than a minute.Her words: Findlay “yelled at me, told me I was being selfish, told me this was about a bigger picture, then she hung up.” She called it an outburst and a tantrum. Follow-up email from Findlay was “colourful.”Provincial tracking from mid-August told a different story than this riding snapshot. Research Co., interviewing 801 adults August 12 to 14, had the NDP at 44% and the Conservatives at 39% among decided voters, with Eby well ahead of Findlay as preferred premier. That was a province-wide online survey, weighted to the census. This poll, other hand, is a local first cut, taken after Gasper’s resignation, after the writ, and after a week in which the Conservative bench kept shrinking. It likely offers a more accurate reflection of local sentiment in real-time.The real test will be the vote. Preliminary results are expected after polls close at 8 p.m. Saturday, September 26. Elections BC sets the official count for October 1.

EXCLUSIVE: First Abbotsford-Mission byelection poll offers mixed results

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