VANCOUVER — Nearly every published poll this campaign has the Conservatives ahead of the NDP among decided voters. Saturday is the day those numbers meet the ballot box and we find out the final result. Voting places open at 8 a.m. and close at 8 p.m. PDT..Premier David Eby called the snap election on September 22, two years ahead of the fixed date. That's when he went to Government House in Victoria and asked Lieutenant-Governor Wendy Cocchia to dissolve the legislature..At the time, Eby pointed to the threat from US President Donald Trump’s trade war as the reason British Columbians needed a "clear mandate" and a "fire break."The Conservative Party of BC had just lost its leader. Then-leader Kerry-Lynne Findlay resigned on September 20 after a wave of MLA departures..The caucus named Lorne Doerkson, the MLA for Cariboo-Chilcotin, interim leader the next day.A video of Doerkson, then a first-term MLA, putting out a fire while helping residents resurfaced.That's when the Trump-related "firebreak" analogy appeared to break down..Almost immediately, the MLAs who had left under Findlay returned under Doerkson's leadership — and like the short-lived exoduses from the Conservative caucus under Findlay's leadership, the Trump framing did not hold. In response, Eby and the NDP shifted from the cost of living, to the size of the NDP’s one-seat majority in 2024, to the need for a stronger mandate to deliver, to healthcare, to direct attacks against Doerkson himself and his campaign staff..Since then, recent polls of decided voters have put the Conservatives ahead of the NDP by three to five points. They've also shown the Greens pulling a late-election surge on account of their party leader Emily Lowan's performance at the election's only party leader's debate..An Ipsos survey conducted October 20 to 22 for Global BC put Conservatives at 44%, the NDP at 39%, and the Greens at 13% among decided voters, with 18% of the wider sample undecided or expressing no preference. On October 18 in Campbell River, Eby asked Green voters to switch to the NDP. He said the Green vote had been the difference between a Conservative and a New Democrat in 11 ridings in 2024. Lowan responded that he was trying to scare voters..The 2024 election ended with the NDP at 47 seats, the Conservatives at 44, and the Greens at 2. The electoral districting remains the same in 2026, meaning either party will need at least 47 seats to form a majority..On Saturday, the BC Green Party has listed a public South Island election night party with Lowan at Church & State Wines in Brentwood Bay, starting at 5:30 p.m. PDT.The Conservative Party of BC has an event scheduled for 7 p.m. PDT at the same venue Findlay won the leadership, and has said Doerkson will not take questions from media on election night regardless of the outcome.The BC NDP has an event occurring at a publicly undisclosed Vancouver location around the same time with no advance notice in terms of Eby's media availability.
