New survey says polarization and electability top voter priorities in BC Conservative leadership race

VANCOUVER — A new Mainstreet Research poll of BC Conservative members commissioned by BC Conservative MLA Peter Milobar’s campaign attempts to show a two horse race emerging within four weeks of a membership registration cut-off on April 18..The poll, commissioned by the Milobar campaign and conducted by Mainstreet Research, surveyed 2,578 respondents, including 2,213 current members and 365 Conservative voters intending to join by the April 18 membership registration deadline.Conducted March 19 to March 22 via email and SMS, the snapshot shows Elliott leading first preferences with 21.2% narrowly ahead of Milobar.In second-choice preferences, Milobar leads with 9.8% followed closely by Ian Black at 9.1%, Elliott at 7.8%, and Kerry-Lynne Findlay at 6.0%.A simulated ranked ballot process based on these results projects Milobar as the eventual winner.The contest shows signs of polarization, with 26.6% of respondents reporting no second choice and 38.9% having no third choice.Voters prioritized electability as the top factor in their decision, with “Is best candidate to win the next election?” scoring a mean of 3.99 out of 10, followed by “Has policies that align with me” at 4.14 and “Is a fiscal Conservative” at 4.23.“With four weeks to go and candidates in full recruitment mode, this race does appear to be a close contest” said Quito Maggi, President & CEO of Mainstreet Research.“Without a clear frontrunner at this stage, the race will be determined by second and third choice votes, how undecided voters choose and new recruits” he added. “While this race is inherently difficult to predict, one thing is certain, this outcome will not be decided early in the ranked ballot voting” he concluded.Top issues amongst respondents also included cost of living and private property rights, ranking far higher among Conservative members than in the general BC population.