Canadians could be eating more than enough of their Wheaties when crops come in this fall, but less porridge..That’s because spring planting is in and if early indications are correct — and the weather holds — Prairie farmers could be looking at a bumper crop of wheat varieties after they planted a near-record number of acres in 2023..According to Statistics Canada, the number of acres of wheat is the highest in more than two decades, at 26.9 million acres. That’s up about 7% over last year and 15% since 2021..Canadian farmers reported planting more wheat, canola, barley, corn for grain and soybeans, but fewer acres of oats, lentils, and dry peas, according to the June 2023 Field Crop Survey. .Favourable conditions across Western Canada allowed producers to complete seeding in a timely manner, the report said. In Alberta, planting was nearly complete by the end of May, just ahead of the average, owing to warm and dry conditions. Planting in Saskatchewan and Manitoba was slightly behind five and 10-year averages because of excess moisture in some areas..In Saskatchewan, wheat area increased 6.9% to 14.2 million acres, as spring wheat area rose 10% to 9.1 million acres and durum wheat area grew 2.2% to five million acres..Alberta producers reported planting 7.9 million acres of wheat, up 4.4% from 2022, led by greater spring wheat area, which increased 6.4% to 6.8 million acres in 2023. Durum wheat area in the province fell 8.3% to 996,800 acres..Farmers in Manitoba, meanwhile, reported total wheat seeded area increased 7.2% to 3.3 million acres..Driven by Saskatchewan, canola was also up to 22.1 million acres, likely due to higher global prices, StatsCan said. Farmers in Saskatchewan reported planting 12.4 million acres of canola, up 8.8% from 2022, while Alberta farmers reported 2.4% less acreage from the previous year, at 6.4 million acres. Seeded area in Manitoba decreased 4.7% to 3.1 million acres..Alberta farmers reported planting more barley, however, which rose nearly 8% to 3.8 million acres..Conversely, the amount of oats took a big hit. In Saskatchewan, the largest oat-producing province, planting fell 45.3% to 1 million acres in 2023. Producers also reported lower areas in Alberta (-25.9%) and Manitoba (-30.4%)..According to Marketplace Commodities President Jim Beusekom, the shifts are due almost exclusively to markets and pricing..“It’s very much about market supply issues,” he said. “Farmers have planted more of what they can get higher prices for and reduced what was harder to move because those commodities are lower in price.” .As with any commodity, prices are driven by supply and demand. And in grain markets, it comes down to weather and specifically rain. Beusekom noted wheat prices fluctuated as much as 15% in the past week on changing weather forecasts..Other variables include the war in Ukraine, which he said is counterintuitively bearish for Canadian farmers. That’s because Russia accounts for about 20% of the world’s grain harvest and despite sanctions they’re having little trouble selling it to buyers in India and Asia..“It could be argued they’re very aggressive marketing their grain,” he said. “War is expensive.”.Nonetheless, higher numbers of acres planted typically translate into higher yields — barring major crop failures due to drought. And Beusekom agreed “that’s going to mean lower prices” come fall.
