End-timers might want to change their plans for Christmas, 2032.
For centuries, soothsayers and prophets from Nostradamus to internet conspiracy theorists have warned of the world’s impending doom. Now, it seems the heavens may have finally delivered a cosmic wildcard to fuel their prophecies.
That’s because astronomers have identified Asteroid 2024 YR4, a space rock measuring up to 100 metres wide, and it now holds one of the highest impact risks of any known near-Earth object. With an ominous 1.3% chance of striking Earth on December 22, 2032, it’s safe to say that some will be bracing for an end-times scenario just in time for Christmas.
First detected by the ATLAS telescope in Chile on December 27, 2024, this rogue rock has swiftly climbed NASA and the European Space Agency’s risk assessment charts. Scientists say it will either become a footnote in asteroid-watching history or a direct hit capable of flattening a major metropolis.
For perspective, the Chelyabinsk meteor that exploded over Russia in 2013 was only 20 metres wide, yet its shockwave injured over 1,500 people and shattered thousands of windows for miles around. Asteroid 2024 YR4 is at least five times larger, meaning an impact could unleash destruction 15 to 20 times more powerful.
For perspective, the Chelyabinsk meteor that exploded over Russia in 2013 was only 20 metres wide, yet its shockwave injured over 1,500 people and shattered thousands of windows for miles around. Asteroid 2024 YR4 is at least five times larger, meaning an impact could unleash destruction 15 to 20 times more powerful.
This has earned it a Torino Scale rating of 3 — the only asteroid currently ranked above zero. While that’s still far from the apocalyptic Torino 10 (reserved for civilization-ending impacts), it’s enough to make astronomers sit up and pay attention.
Before anyone starts stockpiling supplies or decoding Nostradamus, it’s worth noting that a 1.3% chance of impact means a 98.7% chance it will miss us entirely. The most likely outcome? YR4 will harmlessly pass by, just another celestial near-miss to add to the list.
Even so, global planetary defence teams have been activated, including the International Asteroid Warning Network and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group — the same folks who tested asteroid-deflection technology with NASA’s DART mission in 2022.
If future observations suggest a more serious risk, an intercept mission could be proposed ala Bruce Willis in Armageddon, the 1998 sci-fi flick that depicts a wildcat oil driller who successfully plants and detonates a nuclear bomb on a wayward asteroid..
For now, astronomers are tracking YR4’s orbit as it moves away from Earth, hoping to refine their calculations before it disappears from view later this year. If an impact remains a possibility, all eyes will turn to 2028, when the asteroid swings back into visibility for more precise trajectory updates.
History suggests this will likely be another false alarm, much like Apophis, an asteroid once feared to be on a collision course before further observations ruled it out. But should the worst happen, let’s just hope Earth’s luck doesn’t finally run out — right on cue with the doomsayers’ predictions.
