Saskatchewan’s small surplus is being squeezed by a slide in crude oil that shows little sign of reversing, with higher potash prices possibly saving the government’s projected commodity revenues.Unlike Alberta and Newfoundland and Labrador, Saskatchewan did not have a built-in contingency fund in its budget, making the province more exposed to volatile commodity markets, particularly oil and potash.The province built its 2025 budget around West Texas Intermediate averaging $71 USD a barrel. Instead, prices have averaged $62.23 USD, tumbling from $80 (USD) in January to as low as $58 USD this month. Saskatchewan government officials say every $1 USD drop takes $17.9 million from government revenues, leaving an estimated shortfall topping $156 million..Oil and natural gas royalties were expected to deliver about 5.1% of total revenue and help keep the razor thin $12.1 million surplus. Potash has risen significantly in 2025 after slumping to pandemic era lows last year. The rebound started late in 2024 and prices continue to rise. Average prices went from $238.90 USD a tonne in December to $302 USD in January, $318.80 USD in February, and $336.30 USD in March. .Analysts point to firmer supply demand fundamentals, looming US tariffs on Canadian potash, and other international trade issues as key drivers.Saskatchewan’s 2025 budget counts on a far more modest average of $239 USD a tonne. Even though February production fell 18.3% from a year earlier, the province’s potash sales value climbed 7.2%, higher prices are more than making up for lower output.Saskatchewan’s chance of keeping a balanced budget depends on commodity prices of which the province has little control.
