It’s a classic piece of understatement.The federal government is set to miss its 2030 emissions reductions targets — by a wide margin — according to the latest audit from environment commissioner released Tuesday.In fact, the only meaningful reductions over the past 20 years occurred during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, which had little — if anything — to do with government climate policies, said environment and sustainable development commissioner Jerry DeMarco..In fact, there has been “no sustained downward trend” in Canada’s emissions since 2005."These delays increase the likelihood that Canada will miss its 2030 target," the audit said. "They also could result in Canada adding a significantly higher amount of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere over time."Canada's emissions in 2021 — the most recent available — amounted to 670 million tonnes, which is just 8.5% below 2005 levels. To meet the 2030 target, Canada would have to cut almost four times as many emissions as it did in the previous 16.Demarco was tasked with measuring the effectiveness of the Liberals’ 2030 emissions reduction agenda released in 2022. The plan was meant to reduce Canada’s emissions 40% to 45% below 2005 levels by 2030 under the Paris Accord, before eventually reaching net-zero by 2050..According to the report, Canada will be hard pressed to reach 34% reductions under present policies. “Although this would be a significant achievement and change in trajectory for Canada's emissions, it falls short of Canada's commitment to reducing emissions… by 2030,” the audit said.The report further noted there were no targets or performance metrics for more than 95% of the measures in the government plan. It also noted major initiatives such as an emissions cap on oil and gas have yet to be implemented, while clean fuel regulations were delayed.The report also criticized the modelling assumptions, describing them as "overly optimistic” characterized by limited analysis of uncertainties and lack of peer review.".Moreover, there is no mechanism to determine which policies actually work as intended.Canada has set at least eight emissions reduction targets since 1988 under various Conservative and Liberal governments and have missed every single one. The present Liberal government has introduced more than 100 separate climate policies since 2015 although DeMarco’s report looked at just five: passenger transport; heavy duty engines; coal fired power; natural gas; and methane.
