Natural gas is poised to be cheaper to burn for power than coal in 2024 for the first time ever, the US government’s Energy Information Agency (EIA) said on Tuesday.The EIA — not to be confused with the International Energy Agency (IEA) — said in its short-term energy outlook that natural gas will average USD$2.15 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) compared to $2.45 mmBtu for an equivalent amount of coal energy.That compares to $2.54 mmBtu from gas and $2.52 mmBtu for coal in 2023. The five-year averages come in at $3.62 mmBtu for gas and $2.07 mmBtu for coal since 2018..If so, it would mark the first time that average annual gas prices were lower than coal since federal energy data began being collected in 2001.Emissions in the US have been falling over the past two decades due mostly to fuel switching from coal to gas in the power sector.“Despite lower production, we still expect the United States will have the most natural gas in storage on record when the winter withdrawal season begins in November,” it said. .The EIA said gas’ share of power generation would hold steady in 2024 at 42% — the same as 2023 — before slipping to 41% in 2025. Coal’s share, meanwhile, will drop from 17% in 2023 to 15% in 2024 and 14% in 2025.Likewise, the agency projected US coal production would fall from a two-year low of 581.6 million short tons in 2023 to 485.2 million tons in 2024 and 464.2 million tons in 2025 — the lowest since 1962 — as gas and renewables displace coal-fired power plants.The EIA also reduced forecast US coal exports by 30% in April and 20% in May after the collapse of the Francis Scott Key bridge in Baltimore, which is the second-largest export hub for US coal exports, accounting for 28% of total shipments in 2023.The EIA said it expects hotter summer temperatures this year will boost residential electricity consumption by almost 4% in 2024 compared with last year. The rise in residential electricity consumption occurs primarily during the summer months (April to October), supported by an expectation of 7% more cooling day than last summer.
Natural gas is poised to be cheaper to burn for power than coal in 2024 for the first time ever, the US government’s Energy Information Agency (EIA) said on Tuesday.The EIA — not to be confused with the International Energy Agency (IEA) — said in its short-term energy outlook that natural gas will average USD$2.15 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) compared to $2.45 mmBtu for an equivalent amount of coal energy.That compares to $2.54 mmBtu from gas and $2.52 mmBtu for coal in 2023. The five-year averages come in at $3.62 mmBtu for gas and $2.07 mmBtu for coal since 2018..If so, it would mark the first time that average annual gas prices were lower than coal since federal energy data began being collected in 2001.Emissions in the US have been falling over the past two decades due mostly to fuel switching from coal to gas in the power sector.“Despite lower production, we still expect the United States will have the most natural gas in storage on record when the winter withdrawal season begins in November,” it said. .The EIA said gas’ share of power generation would hold steady in 2024 at 42% — the same as 2023 — before slipping to 41% in 2025. Coal’s share, meanwhile, will drop from 17% in 2023 to 15% in 2024 and 14% in 2025.Likewise, the agency projected US coal production would fall from a two-year low of 581.6 million short tons in 2023 to 485.2 million tons in 2024 and 464.2 million tons in 2025 — the lowest since 1962 — as gas and renewables displace coal-fired power plants.The EIA also reduced forecast US coal exports by 30% in April and 20% in May after the collapse of the Francis Scott Key bridge in Baltimore, which is the second-largest export hub for US coal exports, accounting for 28% of total shipments in 2023.The EIA said it expects hotter summer temperatures this year will boost residential electricity consumption by almost 4% in 2024 compared with last year. The rise in residential electricity consumption occurs primarily during the summer months (April to October), supported by an expectation of 7% more cooling day than last summer.
