Oil isn’t going away any time soon..The world’s largest producing cartel, OPEC, which expects oil demand to rise to 110 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2045 and account for a third of global energy supply — roughly the same as today — as world population approaches 9.5 billion..Speaking at a conference in Kuala Lumpur on Monday, OPEC secretary-general Haitham Al Ghais said the cartel expects overall energy demand to rise 23% in the same time period, contradicting the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) prediction of a 75% drop by 2050 to 24 million bpd as the world moves to net zero emissions..In fact, those numbers formed the basis of a Canadian Energy Regulator (CER) report released last week meant to inform the federal government’s own “just transition” path to net zero. In it, it expects a 70% overall reduction in oil production, 83% for oil sands and more that 60% for natural gas.. Oil sands forecastCER says oil sands production would have to fall 85% to meet net-zero targets. .It came after Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson met with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and Energy Minister Brian Jean to discuss this country’s net zero plans which include emissions caps, higher carbon taxes and a complete rebuild of the province’s electrical grid by 2035 toward more renewables such as wind and solar.. Energy mixOil and gas — in green — under the CER’s net-zero scenarios. .“This report also helps us understand the impact that decisions made elsewhere in the world will have on our domestic oil and gas industry … it underlines the fact that global demand for oil, for example, will begin to decline within the next number of years as zero-emissions transportation technologies are deployed in greater number,” Wilkinson said after the report was released..Unfortunately for the feds, it doesn’t seem to line up with “decisions made elsewhere in the world.” The greatest impact will be to decimate Canada’s own domestic industry and put it squarely behind international competitors.. Oil price scenariosOil price assumptions for net zero. .The OPEC forecast jibes with the US government’s own Energy Information Agency (EIA) which sees global oil demand rising to 110 million bpd by 2030 and essentially holding flat to 2050. It sees US demand — which has fallen to about 16 million bpd in recent years — bouncing back to around 19 million bpd due to higher population and economic growth..Likewise, Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser told the same conference the idea of phasing out oil and gas within 30 years is “fanciful” as growth in renewable energy sources lags behind demand growth..As per Reuters, he warned against putting “all transition eggs in the new energy basket.”.Future demand growth is expected to be driven by growing Asian economies looking for affordable energy security to fuel growth. Ironically, a portion of that will come in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to reduce emissions..Speaking at the same conference, Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said net zero goals should not come “at the expense of economic growth or vice versa.”.Malaysia is a major LNG exporter in its own right and owns a 25% stake in the LNG Canada project on Canada’s West Coast.
