Rumours of oil’s demise are greatly exaggerated, according to the head of the world’s largest oil cartel, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries (OPEC)..That includes Canada..Earlier this spring the Canadian Energy Regulator (CER) projected Canadian oil production to fall to 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2050; instead OPEC sees it rising to 7 million bpd in its latest World Oil Outlook.. Canadian oil forecast OPECOPEC‘S Canadian oil forecast .In fact, predictions that oil demand will fall 75% as the world transitions to ‘net-zero’ pose an “extremely risky narrative” according to OPEC general secretary Haitham al-Ghais, who released the cartel’s annual energy omnibus in Saudi Arabia on Monday..Instead of falling to 25 million bpd, as the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts, OPEC sees oil demand rising 23% to 116 million bpd in the same time period..“Calls to stop investments in new oil projects are misguided and could lead to energy and economic chaos. History is replete with numerous examples of turmoil that should serve as a warning for what occurs when policymakers fail to acknowledge energy’s interwoven complexities,” he wrote in the report’s foreword..The distinction is important, because the IEA numbers are being used by governments — including Canada’s — to inform emissions reductions policies, which OPEC in September called “ideologically driven” and “dangerous.”. OPEC oil production forecast to 2028OPEC oil production forecast to 2028 .Instead of massive production cuts, OPEC in fact sees a greater role for both Canada and the US to increase production and exports of both oil and natural gas to developing countries such as India and China..As much as US$14 trillion in new oil and gas investments, or $650 billion per year, will be needed to meet that demand, it said, and satisfy energy requirements of a growing global population, which the United Nations expects to reach 9.8 billion people by 2050..“If these investments do not materialize, it represents a considerable challenge and risk to market stability and energy security,” it said..Led by India, average global economic growth is expected to average 3% per year over the long-term, with global GDP doubling to $270 trillion from $138 trillion in 2022..While it expects wind and solar to post the fastest growth rates — accounting for 12% of global energy supply by 2045 from just 3% in 2022 — fossil fuels will still account for about 70% of energy demand, down from 80% in 2022, due to the phase out of coal..In the shorter term, non-OPEC liquids supply is expected to grow from 65.8 million bpd in 2022 to 72.7 million bpd in 2028 — or 7 million bpd — led by the US, Brazil, Guyana, Canada, Qatar and Norway. Indeed, OPEC sees a continuing role for Canadian exports past 2045. .The OPEC report also acknowledges the growing awareness — and pushback — against the cost of net-zero policies to living standards and overall quality of life. It even framed the ‘energy transition’ as a social justice issue..“There has been pushback against the opinion that the world should see the back of fossil fuels, as policies and targets for other energies falter due to costs and a more nuanced understanding of the scale of the energy challenges,” it said..“What is clear is that the world will continue to need more energy in the decades to come as populations expand, economies grow and given the pressing need to bring modern energy services to those who continue to go without.”
