An economic slowdown is on the horizon for several Canadian provinces, but Western Canada will have the most success, according to a study conducted by the Conference Board of Canada (CBOC). .“Despite our outlook pointing to growth in all regions, a recession is likely for much of the country later this year,” said CBOC Director Ted Mallett in a Wednesday press release. .“Commodity-producing provinces will perform better than construction and manufacturing, while further growth is expected in travel and recreation sectors which still have ground to make up from the pandemic.”.The study said ongoing investment projects will buoy British Columbia this year. But with a strained consumer sector, the CBOC expects BC’s growth to be low because of high interest rates, with GDP rising to .7% in 2023 and 2024..It said strong net migration will continue benefitting Alberta, which is expected to mitigate the impact of an impending recession in Canada, stimulating consumer spending and job creation amid high interest rates. The province’s GDP is expected to grow 2.4% in 2023 and 1.9% in 2024. .A second Alberta Is Calling campaign was launched in March to attract more skilled workers from across Ontario and Atlantic Canada..READ MORE: Jean says Alberta is calling, again.“As Alberta continues to create jobs, attract investment and diversify its economy, we are once again putting out a call for skilled workers to join our great province and appreciate the quality of life that Alberta has to offer," said Alberta Jobs, Economy, and Northern Development Minister Brian Jean. .“It is the renewed Alberta advantage, and I encourage more people to experience it for themselves.”.The study went on to say Saskatchewan’s economy is expected to maintain its momentum throughout 2023, guided by the mining sector. GDP in the province is expected to increase 2.5% in 2023 and 1.9% in 2024. .Saskatchewan ranked as the second-best jurisdiction for mining investment in the world, behind Western Australia, according to the Fraser Institute’s annual mining survey published in 2022. .READ MORE: Study shows Saskatchewan ranks 2nd in the world for mining investment.“A sound and predictable regulatory regime coupled with competitive fiscal policies help make a jurisdiction attractive in the eyes of mining investors,” said Fraser Institute Centre for Natural Resources Director and study co-author Elmira Aliakbari. .Canada had three areas in the global top 10, which were Saskatchewan (second), Quebec (sixth), and Yukon (ninth)..The study continued by saying Manitoba’s GDP is expected to increase 2.2% in 2023 and 1.2% in 2024, driven by strong performance in the agriculture sector contingent on weather patterns. Manitoba is being boosted by investment at the CentrePoint Canada Rail Park. .High-contact services sectors in Ontario will see strong output growth this year as they continue to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, while tourism will help certain regions of the province. Despite these positives, GDP is forecast to grow .9% in 2023 before increasing 1.4% in 2024. .A slowdown in the United States will weigh on Quebec’s demand for some manufactured products, including aluminum and iron ore. The CBOC anticipates Quebec’s GDP to rise to .6% in 2023 and 1.1% in 2024. .Population growth is benefitting New Brunswick, which is improving the labour market in a variety of sectors. The CBOC forecasts GDP growth to be 1% in 2023 before dropping to .6% in 2024. .Several of Nova Scotia’s industries will see stagnant or negative growth this year, as slowdowns are expected to hurt manufacturing sectors and retail and wholesale trade output will decline. However, strong international migration which is boosting the workforce and population will send the GDP’s growth to .7% in 2023 and 1.2% in 2024. .While hurricane damage to cottages and resorts will hurt capacity in Prince Edward Island’s tourism industry at the beginning of the summer, the outlook is encouraging, as the province is expecting a busy season. PEI’s GDP is expected to rise 1.7% in 2023 and 2024. .The study concluded by saying a busy tourism season is expected this year for Newfoundland and Labrador, but construction will be the main driver of economic activity in the province. Despite these positives, it said oil production snags will hold Newfoundland’s GDP growth to .1% in 2023 before expanding to 1.3% in 2024.
