GDP growth in Canadian provinces will be weighed down by various factors throughout the rest of 2023 and into 2024, but localized conditions will contribute to some having stronger growth, according to a study conducted by the Conference Board of Canada (CBOC). .“Consumer spending defied expectations earlier in the year, but the pool of savings that buoyed Canadians finally looks like it has run out of its capacity to sustain overall economic growth,” said CBOC Director, Economic Forecasting Ted Mallett in a Monday press release. .“Consumer activity is also being drained by higher borrowing rates, which are steadily working their way through the system as mortgage terms get renewed.”.The CBOC said British Columbia’s worst wildfire season on record has spurred evacuations throughout the province and will have a material impact on economic output this year. It said the wildfires will weigh on BC’s GDP, which is forecast to increase 1.1% in 2023 and 1.5% in 2024. .The BC government declared a province-wide state of emergency on August 18 due to the growing number of aggressive wildfires threatening communities..READ MORE: BC government declares a province-wide state of emergency.BC Premier David Eby announced the state of emergency following a challenging day which saw fast-spreading wildfires trigger thousands of new evacuation orders and alerts across the province..“We are declaring a provincial state of emergency to ensure we have access to any tools that we may need to respond to this situation,” said Eby. .The CBOC said Alberta is proving to be resilient because of its population growth, which has translated into strong employment gains. It added real GDP for Alberta is forecast to increase 2.7% in 2023 and 1.9% in 2024. .A second Alberta Is Calling campaign was launched to attract more skilled workers from across Ontario and Atlantic Canada in March. .READ MORE: Jean says Alberta is calling, again.The Alberta government said the province's economy continues to grow and diversify, including in high-demand sectors such as skilled trades, healthcare, food service and hospitality, accounting, engineering and technology..“As Alberta continues to create jobs, attract investment and diversify its economy, we are once again putting out a call for skilled workers to join our great province and appreciate the quality of life that Alberta has to offer,” said former Alberta jobs, economy, and northern development minister Brian Jean. .The CBOC acknowledged Saskatchewan’s labour market continues to be an economic strongpoint, with some of the most compelling employment gains in the transportation and warehousing sectors over the past year as population growth continues to surge. These factors are expected to help Saskatchewan’s GDP rise 1.5% in 2023 and 2% in 2024. .Manitoba’s mining industry is seeing a boost, as production has started at the province’s first potash mine Harrowby. Its GDP is expected to increase 2.5% in 2023 and 1.2% in 2024. .Non-residential investment is big news, with electric vehicle battery production set to begin in Ontario in the coming years on the Stellantis-LG Energy and Volkswagen battery manufacturing plants. Ontario’s GDP is forecast to increase 1.3% in 2023 and 1% in 2024. .Despite the near-term headwinds in Quebec, opportunities for growth are present as demand for several of its key manufactured products is expected to rise over the next few years. Quebec’s GDP is expected to increase 0.8% in 2023 and 0.7% in 2024. .Population growth continues to be strong in New Brunswick, with international and interprovincial migration expected to be well above pre-pandemic levels. New Brunswick’s GDP is forecast to grow 1.2% in 2023 and 0.6% in 2024. .Several ongoing construction projects and significant investment announcements will keep construction activity healthy this year in Newfoundland and Labrador. As a result of oil production capacity constraints, there are more negatives than positives, so Newfoundland's GDP is forecast to stall in 2023 and increase 1.6% in 2024. .Despite Nova Scotia’s meteorological woes, its sturdy population growth and consumer spending have helped it navigate through a tough period where much of Canada has grappled with inflationary pressures and rising interest rates. Nova Scotia’s GDP is forecast to grow 1.4% in 2023 and 1% in 2024. .Population growth in Prince Edward Island has played an important role in helping the economy expand and relieved labour shortages in many industries, but it has strained housing and healthcare. International travel to PEI has recovered to 2019 levels, which is expected to help GDP increase 2.6% in 2023 and 1.7% in 2024.
