There are lies, damned lies and everything else that can be Googled.
That's because US president Donald Trump has made a series of claims of eye raising and frankly, outlandish claims about Canada regarding trade, migration, fentanyl, and military spending. The Western Standard breakdown of those claims, ranked for truthfulness on a scale from 1 (completely false) to 5 (completely true) in an attempt to separate the 'B' from the 'S', so to speak..
Claim: ‘The fentanyl coming through Canada is massive’
Truth Score: 1/5 (Mostly False)
* In 2024, U.S. border authorities seized 21,889 pounds of fentanyl.
* Only 43 pounds (0.2%) came from the Canadian border, compared to 21,148 pounds (96.6%) from Mexico.
* The DEA’s 2024 report does not mention Canada as a major fentanyl source.
* A 2022 congressional report also confirmed that Canada is not a primary source of fentanyl to the U.S.
* While fentanyl seizures at the Canadian border increased slightly, they remain a tiny fraction compared to those from Mexico.
Verdict: Trump’s statement is misleading. Canada is not a significant source of fentanyl to the US.
Claim: “They [Canada] allowed millions and millions of people to come into our country that shouldn’t be here.”
Truth Score: 2/5 (Mostly False, Some Basis in Reality)
* In 2024, there were about 2.9 million US migrant encounters nationwide.
* Only 198,929 (6.9%) were at the Canadian border.
* Of illegal crossings (non-port-of-entry), just 1.5% (23,721) were from Canada.
* While migrant crossings from Canada have increased (due to Indian and other foreign nationals flying into Canada), they remain tiny compared to the southern border.
Verdict: The number of migrants coming from Canada has risen but is nowhere near “millions and millions.”
Claim: “We have about a $200 billion deficit with Canada, getting close to $200 billion.”
Truth Score: 1/5 (Completely False)
* The actual U.S. trade deficit with Canada in 2023 was $40.6 billion, per the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
* Even if you only count goods (ignoring services), the deficit was $72.3 billion, still far from $200 billion.
* A major reason for the deficit is that the U.S. imports 3.9 million barrels of Canadian oil daily, which lowers American gas prices.
Verdict: Trump’s claim is exaggerated by nearly five times the real number.
Claim: Canada spends less than 1% of GDP on defense
Truth Score: 3/5 (Partially True, Somewhat Misleading)
* Canada spent 1.37% of GDP on defense in 2024, per NATO.
* While this is below NATO’s 2% target, it is not below 1% as Trump claimed.
* Canada has over 63,000 active military personnel and 20,000 reservists.
* Canada contributes to NATO and fought in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria, among other U.S. military efforts.
Verdict: Trump understates Canada’s defence spending, though it is indeed below the NATO target.
Claim: US banks aren’t allowed in Canada
Truth Score: 1/5 (Completely False)
* Several major US banks operate in Canada, including: Citibank; J.P. Morgan & Co.; Bank of America; PNC Bank; U.S. Bank; Comerica
* Canadians can also open US bank accounts through RBC Bank.
Verdict: Completely false. Multiple US banks operate in Canada.
Claim: "We don't need their oil and gas. We have more than anybody."
Truth Score: 2/5 (Mostly False, Some Basis in Reality)
* The US is the world’s largest oil producer at 13.3 million barrels per day (bpd), compared to Canada’s 5 million, but consumes more than 20 million bpd or about 20% of the world’s supply.
* Canada’s is the US largest foreign oil supplier at more than 4.3 million bpd or about 60% of its imports.
* Canada imports about 500,000 bpd of imported products like gasoline from the US, mainly in Ontario and Quebec.
* The US’ ability to increase production to replace Canadian oil is limited and would take longer than Trump’s four-year term to fully achieve.
* Only Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iraq can replace SOME Canadian crude. But the US aimed for decades to reduce dependence on Middle Eastern oil.
* Crude quality matters. Most US diesel and heating oil comes from Canadian crude.
* Canadian crude is mostly refined in the Midwest and distributed in Northeast, causing concentrated market impacts. But analysts say higher prices and shortages in the Midwest will attract supplies from other states that could cause a flood of petroleum and products in one region while other states suffer.
Verdict: Although the US is the world’s largest oil producer, global and local market realities dictate that the US would not be able to eliminate Canadian oil.
Claim: “The people of Canada like the idea of becoming the 51st state.”
Truth Score: 1/5 (Completely False)
* A December 2024 Leger poll found that 82% of Canadians oppose joining the US while only 13% support the idea.
* Politicians from all major Canadian parties oppose it.
* Canadians uniformly booed The Star Spangled Banner at hockey games across the country on Saturday night.
Verdict: Overwhelmingly false — Canadians do not want to become part of the US.
