In January, the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB) set out its expectations for the Calgary real estate market for 2025 in its annual report. In the report, Ann-Marie Lurie, CREB’s chief economist, said sales would be strong based on a healthy carryover from 2024, and could exceed 26,000 in the year, a 20% increase over long-term trends. "While we anticipate stable sales levels overall, market dynamics will shift as rental rate adjustments and supply improvements influence different segments of the housing market," said Lurie in the report, adding a caveat. "While the market is expected to be more balanced than in recent years, significant economic risks, such as potential tariffs, could impact activity. These risks will be crucial to watch as we navigate through 2025." As it turns out, that was a crystal-ball moment for Lurie, who this week released an updated report on the Calgary market that says sales would more likely top off at 23,000 this year, as economic uncertainties took hold because of the US imposed tariffs. “While much of the most punitive tariffs on Canada have been on aluminum and steel, rising global tariffs have elevated uncertainty regarding energy prices, the impact on inflation and the overall economy. Alberta is expected to lead the country in growth this year, as we are not facing the same near-term challenges experienced in provinces that are more directly impacted by the tariffs.” .“However, we are not immune to the volatility facing the global economy, which is impacting oil prices, creating uncertainty and affecting consumer and business investment.” “The economic uncertainty has contributed to slower sales in many housing markets across the country, including Calgary.” Lurie said earlier declines in energy prices and uncertainty with regard to energy policies and a pause in rate declines were also responsible for some of the stronger than expected pullback in activity in Calgary’s market in early spring. The declines could have been more severe if not for strong population growth coupled with resiliency in Calgary’s job market which helped offset some of the impact on demand felt throughout the spring. “However, this easing comes from a relatively high starting point and has brought sales to a level that is more consistent with long-term trends and higher than the lows reported during the economic slowdown between 2015 and 2019,” said Lurie. “Meanwhile, record high new home starts over the past few years are contributing to supply gains.” “Most of this supply is higher-density (multi-family) in nature and targetted to the rental market but is still causing inventory to rise in the resale market as renters and buyers have more options. This has contributed to the doubling of inventory over 2024, which is bringing resale supply back in line with normal levels.” .There were concerns of a potential market correction, said Lurie. "However, context is needed as we are moving from a market that favoured sellers for most of the past three years, to one that is more balanced and, in some cases, favouring buyers,” she said. “More supply choice in resale, new homes and rental markets is taking pressure off home prices, but not in a uniform manner across the city, and not enough to offset the multiple years of double-digit growth.” An increase in the supply of multi-family buildings, such as rowhouse and apartments, will have a downward effect on prices, with annual declines of 2% expected for apartment-style properties and 1% row homes, said Lurie. “Meanwhile, detached home prices are expected to remain relatively stable as price growth in locations with limited supply are expected to offset the declines occurring in pockets of the market that facing rising competition from new homes,” she said. " Moving forward, clarity surrounding energy/environmental policy will be an important factor influencing the housing market beyond 2025.”
