OTTAWA — All four Conservative MPs who crossed the floor to Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberals could hold onto their seats in the next federal election, according to October polling and projections from 338Canada.The latest numbers suggest Chris d'Entremont, Michael Ma, Matt Jeneroux and Marilyn Gladu could survive their decisions to abandon the Conservatives, despite having won their seats under the party's banner.A Léger survey conducted on October 11, put the Liberals at 48% nationally, compared with 33% for Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives.The figures help explain why the four MPs may be in a stronger electoral position than when they crossed the floor, although their individual ridings tell different stories.In Nova Scotia, d'Entremont has represented his riding through several federal elections, recording his largest Conservative victory under former leader Erin O'Toole.His last election was considerably closer, with d'Entremont holding his seat by just 1.1 percentage points..D'Entremont previously told the Western Standard that he believes he would still be a Conservative today had O'Toole remained leader..Michael Ma's Markham—Unionville riding has also changed hands repeatedly between the two parties.The Liberals won there in 2021, while Conservatives prevailed in 2019 and 2025, with single-digit margins in each of the last three elections.The latest 338Canada projection rates Markham—Unionville as a likely Liberal seat, suggesting Ma could retain the riding under his new party's banner.In Alberta, Matt Jeneroux has held Edmonton Riverbend since 2015, winning four consecutive federal elections as a Conservative.Now, projections cited for the riding put the Liberals roughly five points ahead of the Conservatives.Should Jeneroux win again, it would mark his fifth consecutive electoral victory, this time representing the party he spent much of his federal career opposing.Perhaps the most striking case is Marilyn Gladu in Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong.Gladu won 53.1% of the vote as a Conservative in the 2025 election, comfortably retaining a riding that has long favoured the party.But the latest riding projection puts the Liberals and Conservatives at 42% each, making the contest a toss-up rather than an expected Conservative victory.For Gladu, even a competitive race under the Liberal banner would represent a significant change from the political landscape in which she built her parliamentary career.The figures do not mean the four MPs are guaranteed re-election. Gladu's riding remains closely contested, while the others would still need to convince voters to support them under a different party label.338Canada's projections combine national and regional polling with electoral history and demographic data. They are not direct surveys of voters in each constituency.The October 11 Léger poll surveyed 1,525 Canadians through an online panel.For now, however, the numbers suggest that crossing the floor may not carry the electoral consequences Conservatives had hoped for.
