Canada’s largest housing markets rode a seesaw in August, with some up and some down, according to a new RBC Economics report.
"Diverging regional trends continued for Canada’s housing markets in August," says Rachel Battaglia, an economist at RBC. "Calgary and Edmonton are cooling, but relative strength from population growth should provide some support to demand."
"British Columbia remains the weakest region. Vancouver and the Fraser Valley continue experiencing price declines, albeit at a slower pace," added Battaglia. "Ontario markets showed mixed momentum, and Montreal faces persistent affordability challenges, though expanding inventory may help ease conditions as tightening occurs elsewhere."
Battaglia says uncertainty is holding buyers back.
"Confidence remains fragile and unevenly distributed, with stimulative measures and accumulated demand providing some offset to broader headwinds," she says. "We expect the uneven recovery to persist through year-end as regional affordability gaps and structural dynamics evolve at different speeds."
Here are Battaglia's overviews of Canada's four largest housing markets.
Calgary
Resales slipped more than 9% seasonally adjusted from July, erasing earlier summer gains and returning resales to spring levels, inching closing its 10-year average.
"The weakest segment of the Calgary market is condos, with prices down 8% from last year, due to weak demand," says Battaglia. "The single-family segment fared much better, with a 1.1% price decrease, year-over-year, putting the city in the middle of Canada's six largest markets."
Sellers continue to flow into the market with new listings rising 1.4% seasonally adjusted in August, maintaining historically high inventory.
"The increase in new listings is modest, but with weak demand, the sales-to-new listings ratio hit 0.52, the lowest point since the pandemic," she says.
The ratio means Calgary is in balanced territory, which supports sellers' prices.
Vancouver area
"Vancouver’s four-year housing slump showed signs of life in August, bucking weakness seen across other major markets," says Battaglia. "We estimate resales rose 8.5% seasonally adjusted from July, reversing a 4.5% decline over the previous month."
The increase in sales was partially due to an increase in new listings, which rose 12% from July.
"This influx of supply pushed the sales-to-new listings ratio back into buyer-friendly territory after tightening marginally earlier in the summer," she says, adding prices are falling but showing signs of stabilizing, as the rate of decline is slowing.
"But, further depreciation may be needed to unlock pent-up demand and keep resales growing on a sustained basis," she says. "Vancouver’s housing market remains the weakest among Canada’s six largest markets, a ranking we expect will hold through year-end."
Greater Toronto Area
"Toronto’s housing market has hit a bump in its tentative recovery," says Battaglia. "Resales fell 1.3% seasonally adjusted in August, snapping an upward streak building since March. We think the pullback could reflect renewed angst amid the trade war escalation, though stimulative fiscal policy, the new housing rebate, and pent-up demand should offer some counterweight."
The GTA's prices fell back in August from July.
"This isn’t out of step with our expectations for a bumpy recovery with near-term momentum hanging on how disruptive trade policy will be for confidence," she says, adding, "Active listings continue to peter out on the supply side and keep a floor under prices. New listings were still down 14% year-over-year in August, a larger decline than the 2.1% year over year pullback in sales."
Montreal area
"Sellers continued to emerge in Montreal in August with new listings climbing an estimated 7.1% seasonally adjusted from July," says Battaglia. "This extends a pattern of gradually improving supply throughout 2026, as inventory eases from earlier tight constraints."
Many buyers are staying on the sidelines, however, as resales are below last year's level.
"August saw a temporary lift with resales rising an estimated 4.5% seasonally adjusted from July, but transactions continue to trail year-ago levels," she says. "Poor affordability appears to be the primary headwind suppressing resales, with our measure still hovering near an all-time worst."
“But as inventory continues to build from the earlier supply crunch, we anticipate affordability pressures will begin to ease, strengthening buyer demand.”
