OTTAWA — Prime Minister Mark Carney says he has examined the possibility that US President Donald Trump could order military action against Canada, describing an invasion as an unlikely but potentially catastrophic scenario the government cannot responsibly ignore.Carney told The New York Times in an interview published Wednesday that he had considered the prospect amid Trump’s repeated threats to make Canada the 51st state, though he declined to reveal what preparations or assessments had been conducted.“I think you have a responsibility in these roles to look at extreme tail risk,” Carney said. “That’s just risk management.”Carney stressed that American military action was not the government’s expected scenario but said failing to consider it would be irresponsible.A “tail risk” is an event considered highly unlikely but capable of producing severe consequences.The admission is among the clearest indications that Ottawa has treated Trump’s annexation rhetoric as more than political provocation, even as Carney continues to speak regularly with the president..Trump has repeatedly talked about absorbing Canada into the United States. He ruled out using military force in January 2025 but said he would consider “economic force” to bring Canada under American control.The president has since launched a trade war against Canada and used the country’s dependence on the United States as leverage in negotiations.Carney told the newspaper that those developments had forced Canada to examine its reliance on American technology and defence systems. His government is seeking alternatives to Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite network and reviewing whether to proceed with its full planned purchase of American-made F-35 fighter jets.The prime minister said Canada is systematically reducing vulnerabilities that could be exploited by Washington, ranging from communications satellites to military equipment.“There’s certain things, once you’ve seen them, you can’t unsee them,” Carney said.The government’s review of the F-35 purchase began after Trump’s trade war intensified. Canada has committed to buying an initial group of the aircraft, but the remainder of the planned fleet remains under review as Ottawa considers European alternatives.Carney also said he and Trump have continued speaking frequently despite the collapse of bilateral trade negotiations in August and the imposition of new tariffs by both governments.The two leaders were in New York this week for the United Nations General Assembly but did not hold a formal meeting.Carney’s government has increasingly pursued closer economic and security relationships with Europe while arguing that Canada must become less dependent on any single country.The shift is now being presented not only as an economic response to American tariffs but as protection against what Carney acknowledged could include an extreme threat to Canada’s sovereignty.
