Carney sides with Smith against weaponizing Alberta oil

OTTAWA — Prime Minister Mark Carney says Canada should remain a reliable energy supplier to the United States despite an escalating trade war, putting him largely in line with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith's opposition to using the province's oil as a weapon against Washington.In a wide-ranging interview with The New York Times published Sunday, Carney said he remains reluctant to restrict, tax or otherwise curb Canadian energy exports to the United States in retaliation for US President Donald Trump's tariffs.“If you're a reliable partner and you supply energy or food to somebody it keeps running, it's a very, very, very high threshold to change that,” Carney said.“Never say never, but it starts from a position of, we need to be a reliable supplier in all cases.”Canada supplies roughly 60% of US crude oil imports, giving Ottawa a potentially powerful source of leverage as relations between the two countries deteriorate. Alberta produces the vast majority of Canadian crude exported south of the border.Carney has faced calls to use energy as leverage but has previously argued doing so would risk Canada's reputation as a reliable supplier..Smith has made much the same argument throughout the trade dispute.“Threatening to cut off or tax Alberta's energy is not the answer,” Smith said last month. “It would devastate Alberta's economy, hurt workers and businesses across Canada and risk losing our largest energy customer.”The Alberta premier has instead pushed Ottawa to keep negotiating with American officials while accelerating new pipelines and export routes that would make Canada less dependent on the U.S.“We need to move projects forward, starting by approving the pipeline to the west coast immediately to get construction underway as soon as possible,” Smith said.“It is integral to reaching more markets for Alberta oil and strengthening Canada's economic independence.”Smith argued Canada “will not win this battle through brute force” but by being “smarter, more strategic and more agile.”The premier has also warned that taxing Alberta oil exports could provoke retaliation from Washington that would extend well beyond the province.Smith said last month that a 50% Canadian tariff on roughly four million barrels of oil shipped south each day could be met with US tariffs of between 50% and 100% on energy products, including refined fuels imported by Ontario and Quebec.She has similarly warned that cutting off crude altogether could prompt the US to restrict gasoline and diesel shipments into Central Canada.Carney's position does not entirely rule out using energy as leverage. His “never say never” qualification leaves the option available if relations deteriorate further, but he made clear it would require crossing a high threshold.His government is simultaneously pursuing the other side of Smith's strategy: reducing Canada's reliance on the American market.Ottawa and Alberta are advancing a proposed pipeline to the West Coast that would carry at least one million barrels of Alberta oil per day to Asian markets.The Alberta government says the project is expected to be listed as a project of national interest by October 1, with construction potentially beginning as early as September 2027 if approvals and indigenous consultation requirements are met.Carney has increasingly described diversification as a response to Washington's willingness to use Canada's economic dependence as leverage.“Once you see that, then you start to think, how do I diversify away?” Carney told the Times.For Alberta oil, however, both Carney and Smith are drawing a distinction between finding new customers and abandoning the existing one.Smith has set a goal of doubling Alberta's oil and gas production and exports to more than eight million barrels per day by 2035, while expanding pipeline capacity both to the West Coast and south into the United States.

Carney sides with Smith against weaponizing Alberta oil

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